What we’ve learned from spending the last few weeks in Pennsylvania: From the Politics Department

Welcome to the online version From the politics departmentan evening newsletter featuring the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team on the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

On today’s episode, political reporter Allan Smith and senior White House reporter Peter Nicholas are emptying their notebooks after spending the last two weeks on the battlefield in Pennsylvania. Plus, senior political editor Mark Murray recaps our latest NBC News election poll.

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Inside the final sprint in the biggest state on the map.

Allan Smith and Peter Nicholas

PITTSBURGH — No state played a bigger role in the presidential campaign ahead of Election Day than Pennsylvania.

It has been the backdrop for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris more than any other state, and the site of the most spending on behalf of any candidate. Trump was here almost killed in the summer, just to make money triumphant return months later. That’s where he is served French fries during a photo op at McDonald’s and danced in front of the cameras for almost 40 minutes during a rally that turned into impromptu listening to music.

Harris introduced her here partnerher economic platform and filed appeal after appeal to disgruntled republicans.

This is where Harris and Trump held their debate only. It served as the proverbial red carpet for famous surrogates.

And in the final two weeks of the race, both candidates and their running mates held 16 events in Pennsylvania, including Monday, which marked some of the final campaign rallies for Harris and Trump.

To get a sense of life in the key battleground state in this final stretch of the campaign, NBC News traveled through Pennsylvania for two weeks and spoke with more than two dozen voters, officials and operatives working the races here.

Currently, most supporters of both sides do not express overconfidence that their side will win. Opinion polls in the state show an incredibly tight race that mirrors the results of the last two presidential elections here. Driving through Pennsylvania, you’ll notice a swing state made up of swing streets where neighbors next to each other have signs in favor of opposing candidates. In some cases, there are even wavering families, and talk of politics is prohibited.

Jennifer Mann, a Trump supporter from Philipsburg who attended the former president’s rally in State College late last month, said everyone here has friends or family in their inner circle who have different views on who should win.

“So it’s a really unfortunate situation,” she said, adding that such political conversations “don’t usually happen because there’s a lot of risk involved.”

Read more from Allan and Peter →

Elsewhere on the battlefield map: Natasha Koretsky and Garrett Haake report that the Trump campaign remains unsure about its prospects in North Carolina, the state he carried in the last two elections. Read more →

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NBC News poll highlights divisions in America ahead of election

Mark Murray

Final surveys, including NBC News national pollcannot tell us who will win the presidential election. But they make one thing clear: the country remains deeply divided ahead of the elections.

This is evident from the dead end of our survey. Result from 49% to 49% between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump among registered voters, as well as in other polls with a margin of error.

This is reflected in the huge gender gap, according to the NBC News poll (Harris leads among women by 16 points, and Trump leads men by 18 points), in the deep gap between urban and rural areas (Harris leads among urban voters by 22 points, and Trump leads rural voters). voters). voters by 33 points), as well as fault lines on education (Harris leads among white college-educated voters by 12 points, while Trump leads white voters without a college degree by 30 points).

It is also clear how each side perceives the opposition. Just 4% of Democratic voters have a favorable opinion of Trump, compared to 93% who have an unfavorable opinion (a net rating of -89). And 5% of Republican voters have a favorable view of Harris, while 92% have an unfavorable view (a net rating of -87).

“We’ve moved further apart and picked our own corner,” said pollster Bill McInturff, the Republican half of the bipartisan duo that conducted the NBC News poll. “Each side is locked as much as possible and they don’t budge or move.”

And that division rears its head in one of the poll’s latest questions: With the election of the country’s next president, do you expect the nation to become more united or to remain divided?

Twenty-eight percent of voters responded more uniformly, compared to 60% who responded more dividedly.

More from the NBC News poll: It’s clearer than ever after months of intense polling and years of intense polarization: Winning elections can come down to tiny differences in who votes and who stays home. Read more →

More from an NBC News poll: Beneath the surface of the tight race, the handful of voters who have wavered between Harris and Trump in recent weeks illustrate the lesser-of-two-evils mentality that could decide the election. Read more →

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This is all the policy department has provided for now. If you have any feedback – like it or not – write to us at [email protected]

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