Here’s what will be at stake in Trump’s criminal cases on Election Day

What’s the best advice Donald Trumpcould criminal defense lawyers give him at this point?

Win elections.

Electoral college The results could determine whether the Republican presidential candidate spends the next few years in the White House or in courtrooms trying to avoid prison time. Indeed, if Trump wins, his criminal caseload will almost certainly be cut in half.

Here’s what his four charges look like, starting with the federal cases that are actually on the ballot.

Secret documents and the obstruction case

In July, U.S. District Judge Eileen Cannon closed the case in which the former president was accused of illegally storing national defense information after he left office and obstructing an investigation into his actions. Trump-appointed judge argued that special prosecutor Jack Smith was appointed illegally and Smith attractive termination of the case. Whoever loses in the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals can appeal to the Supreme Court.

But the case could be resolved by February if Trump, who has pleaded not guilty in all his criminal charges, takes office in January. Republican presidential candidate says he will fire Smith “two seconds” if he wins. Former President who pardoned to various friends when he was in power, he might also have attempted a legally untested self-forgiveness. And the Justice Department has a policy against indicting or prosecuting sitting presidents, which could also play a role.

Even if Trump loses the election and Cannon’s firing is overturned on appeal, the case’s fate will be shaky while she presides over it. While there is a good chance that the appellate court will reverse the dismissal and the Supreme Court will uphold the reversal, it is less likely (but still possible) that the appellate court will reverse the dismissal. appoints a new judge deal with it. This is despite the fact that the Florida judge is currently Trump-friendly and the possibility that President Trump might try to promote her. to a higher position.

Federal election interference case

Another Trump federal case is being heard by a judge who may be Cannon’s opposite: an Obama appointee Tanya Chutkan. The main problem in this matter – if Trump loses and fails to overturn it – is the Supreme Court’s July ruling that granted the former president broad criminal immunity. Not only did it narrow the case accusing Trump of illegally trying to overturn the 2020 election, which he lost to Joe Biden, but it also leaves it unclear how much of Smith’s case could go to trial.

That’s because the Supreme Court’s Republican-appointed majority has developed a vague test that excludes certain aspects Smith casebut left it to Chutkan to decide what part of the remainder of the case would be retained. Any decision by a D.C. judge could ultimately be appealed to the judges before trial begins. So while Cannon is a dark factor in the documents case, the Roberts Court hangs over it.

On that note another case Judges’ sentences last year narrowing the obstruction charges against the Jan. 6 defendants could also help Trump, who is accused of obstruction on two of four counts in the indictment. his indictment in the District of Columbia.

Georgia Election Interference Case

The Supreme Court’s decision on immunity may also narrow Trump’s state election interference case – but we haven’t even gotten there yet. This one was tied to pre-trial appealin an attempt by the defense to disqualify Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis. If Willis and her office drop the case, then when and even whether whether he will be appointed to a new position or prosecutor’s office is an open question.

And even if Willis wins his pre-trial appeal and Trump wins the election, don’t expect the incumbent to face a state trial either. The issue was not discussed in court, but Trump’s Georgia lawyer Steve Sadow gave the signal that he is ready to discuss this issue on constitutional grounds.

Even if Trump loses and Willis continues to pursue the case, don’t expect a trial against Trump to begin in Georgia anytime soon. In addition to immunity and other problems that still need to be addressed, there are also several co-defendants remaining on racketeering chargeswhich causes its own difficulties.

Another wrinkle is that one of those defendants, former Trump White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, has pending petition in the Supreme Court, where he is trying to move his charges to federal court. This issue goes beyond Meadows, as other defendants looking for the same reliefincluding Trump-era environmental lawyer Jeffrey Clark. (Meadows and Clark pleaded not guilty.)

Meadows’ motion is scheduled to be heard during a closed conference of the judges. on Fridayso we will soon be able to find out whether the court will accept this case for consideration. Four judges are required to hear a case.

New York Secret Money Case

Finally, there is Manhattan. In May Trump was convicted of falsifying business records for concealing hush money refunds paid to Stormy Daniels before the 2016 presidential election. The adult film star claimed she had sex with Trump several years ago, but he denied it.

Sentencing in this state case has been deferred. just recently until November 26th. But first Judge Juan Merchan is scheduled to rule Nov. 12 on whether the convictions can stand in light of the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling. Although Trump has not been convicted in New York for official acts committed as president, his lawyers argue that the evidence prosecutors used to convict him nonetheless contradicts that ruling.

Trump’s lawyers also made it clear that they will appeal immediately adverse immunity ruling, possibly all the way to the Supreme Court. So, regardless of whether Trump wins the election, his sentence in New York could be reviewed. further delay due to a possible appeal. Anyway, imprisonment is not mandatory in this case, the charges are the lowest level under the law among Trump’s four charges.

But the fact remains that his best defense in all his endeavors is to win the election.

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