From Taiwan to trade: China braces for heightened rivalry as tight US presidential race ends

BEIJING – As Americans voted in one of the toughest presidential elections in decades, China was bracing for a result that – no matter who wins – will mean four more years of bitter superpower competition over trade, technology and security.

Strategists in Beijing said that while they expect more fiery rhetoric and potentially crippling tariffs from Republican nominee Donald Trump, some say he may be driven by pragmatism and a willingness to reach deals on trade and Taiwan.

From Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, Beijing expected predictability and a continuation of U.S. President Joe Biden’s approach focused on working with allies on China-related issues such as technology curbs, Taiwan and conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Either outcome is unlikely to lead to a shift, analysts say, given how big the geopolitical rivalry with Beijing has become and how politically deadly even the perception of cooperation with China is on both sides of the aisle in Washington.

“Regardless of who is elected, structural tensions are an undeniable reality and have become a widely accepted bipartisan consensus in the United States,” said Dr. Henry Huiyao Wang of the Beijing-based China and Globalization think tank.

A Trump or Harris administration’s China policy is “likely to be strategically consistent,” Peking University experts Wang Jixi, Hu Ran and Zhao Jianwei said in an article in Foreignaffers magazine.

“As presidents, both candidates will present challenges and disadvantages to China, and neither appears to want a major military conflict or an end to all economic and social contacts,” they said, adding that because of this, “Beijing is unlikely to agree to this.” clear preference.”

Opinion polls show Trump, 78, and Harris, 60, virtually tied. The winner may not be known for days after the vote, although Trump has already signaled he will try to fight any defeat, as he did in 2020.

Trump tariff threat

The biggest difference in Chinese policy concerns trade, where Trump has proposed tariffs on Chinese imports exceeding 60 percent and ending China’s most-favored nation trade status.

That threat alone is unnerving China’s industrial complex, which sells more than US$400 billion (S$527 billion) worth of goods to the US each year and hundreds of billions more in components for products Americans buy elsewhere.

Manufacturers surveyed by Reuters expected the tariffs to disrupt supply chains and further cut into China’s profits, hurting jobs, investment and already flagging economic growth. They say the trade war will raise production costs and consumer prices in the United States, even if factories move.

The new tariffs could prove “very difficult for Beijing given the economic difficulties in China,” said Professor Zhao Minghao of Shanghai Fudan University.

He added that Beijing also has “deeper concerns about the future of the international economic and trading system” due to Trump’s proposal to impose a 10 percent tariff on all goods from other countries.