Stock Market Today: Dow Futures Jump 600 Points as Investors See Trump’s Advantage

It’s still early, but market behavior when results are released Tuesday evening indicates investors see a path for Donald Trump to return to the White House, a veteran Wall Street strategist told MarketWatch.

“The Dow is up 265 points, so I think the market is expecting a Trump win,” Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, said in a phone interview.

A 0.7% gain in Dow futures was matched by a 0.6% rise in S&P 500 futures, while the dollar was stronger against its major peers, including a strong gain against the Mexican peso. Bitcoin was also higher. The dollar and Bitcoin were thought to benefit from Trump’s victory.

The S&P 500 rose 1.2% on Tuesday. On average, the S&P 500 rose 0.9% on presidential election days, with gains 80% of the time. In the three days after Election Day, the market averaged a 0.9% decline, but half the time it strengthened, Stovall said. Going back to World War II, the market grew an average of 1.5% from Election Day through the end of the year, rising 65% of the time.

That assumes, but doesn’t guarantee, that stocks will rise but won’t necessarily race once election uncertainty clears, Stovall said.