Security Hawk Says Russia Will Take More Steps Down Nuclear ‘Escalation Ladder’

Vladimir Soldatkin.

SOCHI, Russia (Reuters) – Russia will continue to send nuclear warning signals to its Western enemies until they receive the message, an influential foreign policy hawk said on Wednesday.

Security expert Sergei Karaganov has consistently called on President Vladimir Putin to lower the threshold for using nuclear weapons, and in the past even advocated a pre-emptive strike on a NATO country.

Putin said Russia does not need to resort to nuclear weapons to achieve victory in the war in Ukraine. But in September he said Moscow was expanding the list of scenarios in which it would consider using such weapons.

Karaganov told Reuters he hoped there would be no attacks on Western countries. But he said Putin’s announced changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine were part of an attempt to “sober up our Western partners, especially the Europeans.”

“Exactly so… There will be steps up the ladder of nuclear escalation, of which several have already been made, (and) there will be more. Until, finally, the Europeans run away,” he said.

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Putin has made a number of statements that the West has interpreted as a nuclear threat. In September, he signaled that Moscow would consider responding with nuclear weapons if the United States and its allies allowed Ukraine to strike deep into Russia with long-range Western missiles.

He also conducted a series of nuclear exercises, changed Russia’s position on major arms treaties and announced the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons to its ally Belarus, which borders three NATO countries.

Russia argues that it is the West that is increasing the risk of nuclear confrontation by arming Ukraine. He accuses the US and its allies of using Ukraine as a tool in a proxy war aimed at inflicting a “strategic defeat” on Russia.

Karaganov argues that Russia needs to restore Western fear of nuclear weapons to deter its enemies.

“They stopped being afraid of war. And especially the Europeans. They are getting into the third world war right before our eyes,” he said.

“They need to be stopped, including by climbing the ladder of nuclear escalation and informing them in various ways – both military-technical and by changing (Russian nuclear) doctrine – that they will be the first to die in this war.”

He was speaking on the sidelines of the annual Valdai Forum conference, where Putin will speak on Thursday and is likely to answer questions from Russian and Western experts about nuclear policy, the war in Ukraine and the future of Russian-American relations under the new presidency of Donald Trump.

(Reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin; Writing by Mark Trevelyan; Editing by Angus MacSwan)