Trump promises peace in the Middle East; it won’t be easy

Posted by TIA GOLDENBERG

TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — Donald Trump will return to the presidency of the United States at a time of unprecedented conflict and uncertainty in the Middle East. He promised to fix it.

But Trump’s history of strong support for Israel, coupled with his persistence As he campaigns to ensure the war in Gaza ends quickly, isolationist forces in the Republican Party and his penchant for unpredictability are raising a mountain of questions about how his second presidency will affect the region at this crucial moment.

Unless an elusive ceasefire can be achieved before his inauguration, Trump will assume the nation’s highest office as brutal war in Gaza still rages and Israel insists on its offensive against Lebanese Hezbollah battle group. Fire between Iran and Israel shows no signs of abating – nor do Israel’s conflicts with Iranian proxies in Iraq and Yemen – and Iran’s nuclear program remains a major concern for Israel.

Trump says he wants peace, but how?

Throughout his campaign, Trump vowed to bring peace to the region.

“Let’s get this over with, let’s get back to peace and stop killing people,” Trump said of the conflict in the Gaza Strip in an interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt in April.

Israel went to war in response to Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023when terrorists killed 1,200 people in Israel and kidnapped 250, with dozens are still in Gaza. The Israeli offensive has killed more than 43,000 people, according to Gaza health officials, who make no distinction between civilians and militants, although they say more than half of the dead are women and children. Hamas has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States, Canada and the European Union.

The war provoked a humanitarian catastrophe in the Gaza Strip and led Israel to increased international isolation. war crimes chargesand caused a wave protests on American campuses This has sparked debate about the US role as Israel’s key military and diplomatic supporter.

International mediators from the United States, Egypt and Qatar tried unsuccessfully to achieve a lasting ceasefire.

However, Trump has repeatedly called on Israel to “finish the job” and destroy Hamas, but has not said how.

“Does the completion of the job mean that you have free rein to fight the remnants of Hamas? Or does finishing the job mean the war has to end now?” asked David Makowsky, director of the Arab-Israeli Relations Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “That’s part of the puzzle.”

Netanyahu pins his hopes on pro-Israel Trump administration

Uncertainty also shrouds how Trump will interact with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. During his first term, Trump offered broad support for the Israeli leader’s hard-line policies, including unilateral withdrawal from deal to curb Iran’s nuclear program Netanyahu has long opposed this.

Trump also recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, reaffirming its claim to the disputed city and Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights, captured from Syria in the 1967 Mideast war. He presented a peace plan with the Palestinians, who by all accounts support Israel. During his presidency, there has been a sharp increase in settlement construction in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, which is seen as an obstacle to Palestinian statehood.

Trump also helped broker agreements between Israel and four Arab countries to normalize relations that were independent of progress toward Palestinian statehood, a major victory for Netanyahu. The Israeli leader hopes to repeat this success by striking a deal with Saudi Arabia.

The leaders clashed after Netanyahu congratulated President Joe Biden after the 2020 election – although Trump saw the move as a snub from his trusted ally. Netanyahu visited Trump in Florida this year.

Under Biden, the US has at times been critical and Some weapons have been slowed down supplies in response to Israeli behavior in Gaza. Netanyahu is likely hoping that Trump’s return will ease any restrictions preventing Israel from pursuing its military goals. The American leader could also try to challenge a potential international arrest warrant against Netanyahu for war crimes. And smoother relations with Washington could help improve popular support for the Israeli leader.

“He has the most pro-Israel record of any president,” said Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to Washington. “The hope is that there will be more of the same.”

Neither Netanyahu nor Trump has a clear vision of the post-war situation in the Gaza Strip.

Netanyahu heads a far-right government whose key members have vowed to overthrow his rule if the war in Gaza ends in anything less than the destruction of Hamas. They support the Gaza resettlement and are enthusiastic about a Trump presidency – and their influence will only grow now that Netanyahu fired his defense minister due to his more pragmatic approach to conflict.

Their control over Netanyahu’s government and political future helps explain why Netanyahu has not articulated a clear vision for the future. post-war Gaza.

The Biden administration is pushing for the war-ravaged territory to be administered by the Western-backed Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the West Bank. Netanyahu has rejected the idea and insists the Israeli military has the right to operate there.

Trump hasn’t laid out a clear vision, although he has said developers can make Gaza “better than Monaco” because it has “the best location in the Middle East, better water, better everything.”

Diana Buttu, a former adviser to Palestinian leaders, said the lack of a strong US vision for the situation in Gaza, coupled with the politically powerful Israeli far right, has left the future of Gazans and Palestinians generally bleak.

“I don’t think this is a president who will care about the Palestinians,” she said.

Will Trump help protect Israel from Iran or choose America first?

In Lebanon, Israel is fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah using both ground incursions and strikes against Hezbollah targets. The militant group fired thousands of rockets and drones into Israeli communities, killing dozens and displacing 60,000 people. Meanwhile, the Israeli offensive has displaced more than 1 million people in Lebanon and killed more than 3,000.

US mediation efforts there also proved fruitless. Trump, who has a Lebanese-American son-in-law, recently posted on social media platform X that as president he would “stop the suffering and destruction in Lebanon.”

But the key question is how much Trump will be swayed by his “America First” instincts.

The US played a central role in diplomatic efforts throughout the war and an even more active role in helping Israel defend itself against Iran and its allies.

The US sent military forces to the region, helped Israel prevent two Iranian missile attacks and even American soldiers in Israel use a complex air defense system. But any effective Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, a target he avoided during his strike last monthmore active US military intervention will likely be required.

The accusations are that Iran hacked campaign associates and concerns about Tehran’s ability to use violence against Trump or members of his administration could deepen his antipathy toward the country.

While Trump has signaled he will focus on domestic affairs, the Middle East may be sidelined.

He enjoys broad support from evangelical Christians who are strongly pro-Israel, and his son-in-law and former adviser Jared Kushner was a prominent voice for the country in his first administration.

“Because Trump is likely to navigate these forces largely based on his intuition,” said Udi Sommer, an expert on U.S.-Israel relations at Tel Aviv University, “his approach will likely be shaped by uncertainty.”

Originally published: November 6, 2024 9:17 AM CST