House of Representatives is Democrats’ best chance to test Trump’s executive powers

A House majority could give Donald Trump the power he needs to enshrine some of his most ambitious policy plans, or it could serve as a critical check on his worst impulses.

The steady erosion of power from the legislative to the executive branch over several decades means that majorities in Congress are less important than they should be. However, the only remaining piece of the 2024 election puzzle is the big prize, and it remains undecided as of Wednesday afternoon. The results of several yet-to-be-called House races will set the stage for a huge fiscal showdown next year, the most important part of which is the expiration of some tax cuts enacted during Trump’s first term and will similarly impact Trump’s proposed plans for cutting the federal budget by $2 trillion.

More on this a little later. Let’s check the scoreboard first. As of 3:30 p.m. Wednesday. New York Times had called There are 200 Republican House races and 183 Democratic ones, with 52 races still undecided. Meanwhile, there were Republicans at the Associated Press. forward 201-186 and 48 are still too close to call. Remember: to gain a majority in the House, you need 218 seats.

With Trump’s victory and the GOP taking control of the U.S. Senate on Tuesday night, it may seem like a Republican majority in the House of Representatives is a foregone conclusion. That’s not necessarily the case, as congressional elections are sometimes decided by a combination of silly gerrymandering and local issues that defy national trends. In the district where I live—Virginia’s still-undecided 7th District—much of the advertising in the final days of the election focused on one candidate faking having a family for a photo op while another allegedly lied about his military service. . These things are getting weird.

However, it is clear from the numbers that the Democrats are moving very narrow path to victory in the moment.

The size of the future Republican majority will also matter—will it be what Nate Silver said it would be? put this on“functional GOP majority versus dysfunctional GOP majority.” Over the past few years, we have seen how a slim majority can transfer enormous power to small factions. Yes, rabble-rousers in the Republican Conference may have less incentive to act with Trump in the White House and a Republican majority in the Senate, but the difference between a three-seat majority and a ten-seat majority could make all the difference. large consequences for even the most basic legislative tasks, such as choosing a speaker and passing a budget.

It will be several days, and possibly longer, before all the results are published upcoming House results known.

In a healthier republic, we would all be sitting on pins and needles, waiting for the results in Iowa 1st, Pennsylvania 8th, Virginia 7th, and so on. Control of the House of Representatives should be That The biggest prize in any election cycle, since Congress is constitutionally the most powerful branch of the federal government, and the House of Representatives is the part of Congress most directly responsive to the interests of the people.

This is obviously not the world we live in now.

Indeed, control of Congress likely won’t matter when it comes to much of the agenda Trump has laid out for his second term. He will have broad power To set tariffs unilaterally and establish other barriers to trade through the Department of Commerce and the Office of the United States Trade Representative. His mass deportation plan and other policies restricting immigration can be implemented by executive order and implemented by the Department of Homeland Security and the Border Patrol. If Trump follows through on his threats persecute unfriendly media (possibly by targeting their broadcast licenses), he will be able to rely on FCC appointees to do the dirty work. And, as the Biden administration has clearly demonstrated, the FTC has the flexibility to broad and undefined powers over many aspects of the economy and private business decisions (in such a way that some of Trump’s allies applauded).

The only thing that still depends on Congress is the annual federal budget (or at least the ongoing resolutions and omnibus bills that replace it each year), and questions about where the government gets its tax revenue.

These issues will matter more than usual next year as much of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 changes. expires at the end of 2025. Unless Congress extends the lower individual tax rates established by the TCJA, virtually all American taxpayers will face tax hikes in 2026. Of course, extending these tax cuts would have to be accompanied by offsetting spending cuts, which Congress would have to determine. And with Trump ally Elon Musk promising to cut $2 trillion. from the federal budget, congressional budget workers could have a very busy year ahead.

Republican majorities in both houses of Congress mean Trump will have the freedom to pursue an aggressive overhaul of the federal budget and tax code, as he did at the start of his first term. Even without 60 votes in the Senate, Republicans should be able to use reconciliation process to achieve its tax and spending goals.

But keep in mind: the last time they had this opportunity, Trump was overseeing huge increase in costs What accumulated even more debts. Single-party control of government is generally not a recipe for fiscal restraint, no matter what is promised on the campaign trail.

A small Democratic majority in the House will certainly complicate the debate over what to do with the expiring portions of the TCJA. It would also give Democrats the ability to defund parts of Trump’s agenda and hold investigations and oversight hearings that could limit any abuses of power.

That’s why the remaining House races could be some of the most important aspects of this year’s elections, even if they weren’t on your radar last night.