AP calls race for Republican Dave McCormick; Casey won’t concede yet, citing ‘tens of thousands’ of votes yet to be counted

It took two days, but the Associated Press called the Pennsylvania Senate race for Republican Dave McCormick. It was a tight race. However, Casey’s campaign is still not conceding. It is quite possible that it falls within the tolerance limits for recalculation.

But if McCormick’s win does hold up, experts say it will be a major upset.

“Incumbents don’t lose very often, especially those who have been popular for a long time,” said Chris Borick, a political science professor and director of the Institute of Public Opinion at Muhlenberg College.

Three-term U.S. Sen. Bob Casey was defeated by Republican challenger Dave McCormick. According to the Associated Press.

“A major historical loss for Casey because of his history in the state,” Borick said.

McCormick’s campaign declared victory just before the AP called it, saying he won “either way.”

Meanwhile, even despite this, the Casey campaign just released own statementsaying there were still tens of thousands of ballots to be counted.

The statement also claims the race result is within half a point, which is the official margin needed for a recount.

The Pennsylvania Department of State also recently published on X, it is estimated that at least 100,000 ballots still need to be reviewed, including provisional, military and overseas ballots, as well as Election Day votes.

But if the numbers are correct and the Democratic incumbent actually leaves office, it would be a major shakeup.

“Bob Casey comes from a prominent political family in Pennsylvania,” Borick said.

Since 1966, there hasn’t been a Pennsylvania ballot that hasn’t included Casey.

“His father, Bob Casey Sr., was… governor of Pennsylvania for two terms in the ’80s and ’90s,” Borick said. “Bob Casey Jr. himself… was elected three times to a U.S. Senate seat from Pennsylvania.”

According to Borick, Casey has had a fairly easy victory so far. But running on the same list as a losing presidential candidate can be harmful.

“Time matters, right?” – said Borik.

“I think the Republicans who are winning this round in Pennsylvania are really winning on Trump’s coattails,” said John Kincaid, a professor of government and public service at Lafayette College.

“Essentially, you depend a lot on what happens at the top of the ticket,” Borick said. “Casey would easily win if he ran in 2022.”

That doesn’t mean McCormick isn’t a worthy competitor, he says.

“He’s moderate enough to attract voters who might be average,” Borick said.