Extreme Weather Drives Illegal Migration at US-Mexico Border: Study

Extreme weather conditions caused by climate change have contributed to illegal migration at the US-Mexico border, according to a new study.

Immigration was a huge problem in Presidential elections on Tuesdaywhere is the former president Donald Trump, republican candidate, defeated vice president Kamala HarrisDemocratic candidate, after sharply criticizing the Biden-Harris administration’s actions on the southern border and promising illegal mass deportations of an estimated 11 million people in the United States.

The study, titled “Weather Variations Associated with Illegal Migration and Returns Between Mexico and the United States,” was published Monday in the journal. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found that people from agricultural areas of Mexico were more likely to cross the border illegally after a drought and were less likely to return to their homelands when extreme weather continued.

The researchers analyzed daily weather data and survey responses from 48,313 people from 1992 to 2018. They focused on about 3,700 people who crossed the border for the first time without documents.

They also analyzed 84 agricultural communities in Mexico where corn cultivation was dependent on the weather. The researchers linked humans’ decisions to migrate and return to abnormal changes in temperature and rainfall in their original settlements during the corn-growing season from May to August.

The study found that those experiencing drought had higher migration rates than those experiencing normal rainfall. Additionally, people were less likely to return to Mexico from the United States when their original settlements were unusually dry or wet.

Extreme weather in Mexico

Climate change is affecting communities around the world, worsening extreme weather conditions, from longer, drier droughts to deadly heat waves and rapidly intensifying storms causing record amounts of rainfall.

In Mexico, drought has dried up water bodies, leading to severe water shortages and a sharp decline in corn production, threatening the livelihoods of those living in the country of nearly 130 million people. Meanwhile, the researchers said Mexico’s average annual temperature is expected to increase to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit by 2060.

Extreme weather in Mexico is likely to cause economic harm to rural communities that rely on rain-fed agriculture, according to researchers.

Developing countries bear the brunt of climate change

Filiz Garip, researcher and professor of sociology and international relations at Princeton UniversityDeveloped countries have contributed far more to climate change than developing countries, which bear the brunt, he said.

Garip said migration “is not a decision that people take lightly… and yet they are forced to do it more often, and they are forced to stay longer in the United States” due to extreme weather conditions.

Not everyone is affected or responded to in the same way by extreme weather events, Garip said, “and typical social and economic advantages or disadvantages also shape how people experience these events.”

What are President-elect Trump’s climate policies?

The Biden-Harris administration has focused on combating climate change with policies that promote clean energy, such as the Inflation Reduction Act, which is expected to cut U.S. emissions by about 40 percent by 2030.

On the other hand, Trump’s proposed energy policies are based on increasing the production of fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas and coal, which are the main causes of climate change.

The president-elect has vowed to dismantle what he calls Democrats“the new green scam” and said that under his administration America would “drill, baby, drill.”

Trump said he would expand oil production on public lands and offer tax breaks to oil, gas and coal producers.

This article includes reporting from The Associated Press.