Notre Dame vs. Florida State Score Prediction Using Expert Football Model

Coming off a blowout win two weeks ago, No. 10 Notre Dame returns home against reeling Florida State on Saturday. Let’s check out the latest game predictions from an expert football model that predicts the score and picks the winners.

Notre Dame upset then-undefeated Navy in a signature moment that helped propel the team into the top 10 in the inaugural College Football Playoff rankings, but they have little room for error going forward as the new playoff team fluctuates near the cutoff. system.

Florida State’s season essentially ended in Week 1, starting 0-3 and losing its final five games to go 1-8 and facing serious questions as it ranks dead last nationally in passing, rushing and scoring.

What do the analytical models suggest when the Fighting Irish and Seminoles meet in this matchup?

To do that, let’s turn to the SP+ forecasting model to get an idea of ​​how Notre Dame and Florida State compare in this Week 11 college football matchup.

As expected, the models decisively sided with the Fighting Irish over the Seminoles.

SP+ predicts that Notre Dame would defeat Florida State 38-10. and win the game with an advantage expected difference 27.8 points.

The model gives the Irish a strong 96 percent probability pure victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted college football performance metric” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most consistent and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is this season? The SP+ model is currently 262-244-7 against the spread with a 51.8 winning percentage after going 23-23-2 (50%) last weekend.

Notre Dame is Favorite with a rating of 25.5 points vs. Florida State, according to updated numbers posted by FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel has set the amount at 42.5 points per game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the odds against Notre Dame at: -10000 and for the state of Florida in +2400 win outright.

If you are using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take…

If you do, you’ll be in the company of most bettors who expect the Fighting Irish to handle the Seminoles with ease, according to the latest consensus projections for the game.

Notre Dame becomes 65 percent bets to win the game and cover a large point spread.

Another 35 percent the betting odds are that Florida State will either win outright if it loses or, more likely, keep the margin below 26 points if it loses.

Notre Dame is ranked fifth in the country with plus-24.5 points Average goal difference per game this season.

Florida State ranks 116th out of 134 FBS teams with minus-12.9 points margin per game.

Over the last three games, the difference in these indicators has been different, as the Irish have proven. 32.3 points better than opponents, while the Seminoles averaged 17.7 points worse for this period.

Notre Dame is playing at home this season. 18 points better than opponents on average, while Florida State was 14.5 points worse when on the road in 2024.

Florida State is ranked 131st nationally with 0.230 points per game on offense, compared to a Notre Dame defense that ranks 2nd in the FBS in passing. 0.185 points per game.

On the other hand, the Irish are in 10th place with 0.560 points per game on offense, going against the Seminoles’ 75th-ranked defense, giving up 0.383 points per game.

Most other analytical models here also favor the Irish over the Seminoles by a wide margin.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer forecasting model that uses data from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Notre Dame takes an overwhelming lead. 96.5 percent from the latest computer simulations for the game.

That leaves Florida State as the projected winner in the remaining 3.5 percent Sims.

How does this affect the expected advantage in the game?

It is planned that Notre Dame will be 29.2 points better than Florida State on the same field with both teams’ current lineups, according to the latest model projection.

Notre Dame is ranked 10th nationally among 134 FBS teams with Probability 62.1 percent to make the College Football Playoff, according to FPI metrics.

This model assumes the Fighting Irish will win. 10.4 games this season.

And he predicts Notre Dame will have Probability 50.2 percent to win the rest of the season, ranking third in the country in that category behind Washington State (50.5%) and Boise State (58.3%).

Florida State is at the bottom of the ACC with 2.3 general winning forecast this season, according to index calculations.

When: Saturday, November 9.
Time: 7:30 pm Eastern Time.
TV: NBC network

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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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