Predicting the 12-team playoff field entering Week 10

The difference between clarity and madness can sometimes be very subtle.

On one hand, Week 9 of the 2024 college football season has brought some issues to light—for example, Brian Kelly can’t win the big game at LSU better than he can at Notre Dame. But the most recent series of games has also taught us that any strange things happening in Bloomington and Nashville can’t just be chalked up to chance and fluke.

Designing the future, as we have already made clear, is not an exact science. Even though they make millions, the kids who make up the workforce of these teams can be a little unpredictable at times.

However, he makes another fearless prediction for the 12-team playoffs entering Week 10!

First round bye

#1 = Oregon Ducks (Last week: 1)

We think it was a fool’s errand to think Bret Bielema could muster enough road madness to flip the top of this deal. Because it was all the Ducks against No. 20 Illinois when Dillon Gabriel threw 3 TD passes to set up Oregon’s blunder W. Gabriel is currently No. 2 on the NCAA career passing yards list, but he was quick to point out This. after the game: “I’m chasing wins, man.” Next up: rapidly fading Michigan in Ann Arbor.

#2 = Miami Hurricanes (LW: 2)

Winning a state championship is such a high school goal, but Miami tried to capture its mythical state title in style Saturday – pulling away from Florida State’s epic 36-14 upset at Hard Rock Stadium. You wouldn’t think a win over a 1-7 team would mean so much, but this is the Hurricanes-Seminoles we’re talking about here, and Mike Norvell’s team wanted to shock the world. The problem is that Miami is feeling more indestructible every week and is now the belle of the ACC ball.

#3 = Georgia Bulldogs (LW: 3)

Not only did Georgia not play in Week 9, but they managed to go the entire cycle without any major infractions from the Bulldogs players – I would have lost a few shekels for the “Over 0.5” arrests in the Fulmer Cup. The Kirby Smart crew remained on their best behavior and recovered for the upcoming journey, complete with cocktails, Joey’s fresh water and orange sherbet. Oh, and we think UMass and Georgia Tech should be shaking in fear too…

#4 = BYU Cougars (LW: 4)

Confession time: Getting the Cougs to such a high level last week was something of a recruiting exercise, with roughly half the Big 12 still in contention for the conference championship. But we liked what we saw when BYU dispatched UCF at the Bounce House, especially since Iowa State took on UCF the week before in Ames. BYU is off work this week and will prepare for its game at Utah State on Nov. 9.

Seeds 5-12

#5 (at large) = Ohio State Buckeyes (LW: 5)

Week 9 nearly devolved into chaos in the Horseshoe as Nebraska gave the Buckeyes complete misery from Big Noon until the 59th minute. Luckily for Ryan Day and his magnificent beard, Dylan Raiola momentarily went colorblind and switched to a red uniform instead of a white one with 1:16 to play, prompting a gasp that could be heard in Pickerington. Play it that way, and Penn State will provide plenty of unwanted exposure.

No. 6 (overall) = Penn State Nittany Lions (LW: 6)

We have reached the moment of truth for James Franklin and the Nittany Lions in 2024. As seen above, Ohio State isn’t exactly a world leader right now, and getting the Buckeyes into Happy Valley is as good a leap as it gets. Win Saturday and Penn State has a great chance to leapfrog Oregon into the Big Ten pole position. Lose and the commentary on “Little Game James” reaches an epic crescendo. Dear Saban, We love college football!

#7 (at large) = Clemson Tigers (LW: 7)

We can only imagine what’s going through Dabo Swinney’s head right now. Now he can’t use the Swarm Autos metaphor with an expanded playoff system, but he also can’t scream that Clemson is underrated because (as we’ve already noted…) they were coached by Georgia. Damn these idle weeks. Clemson has 5 straight games to either continue to deliver or stumble and fall – and we like to “continue to deliver” by the slimmest of margins.

#8 (overall) = Texas Longhorns (LW: 8)

Boy, was it chaos on our minds all weekend – as Texas visited Vanderbilt and their new goalpost (previous post last seen at the bottom of the Cumberland River) to take on a frisky Commodores team for a second double against a top 5 team. And Vandy damn near did it too, but the Longhorns survived and lived another week. Shaky outings like the one that came just a week after the loss to Georgia should signal concern to Longhorn Nation and renew hope for Little Brother in College Station.

No. 9 (at large) = Texas A&M Aggies (LW: 10)

We’re starting to feel like honorary shout leaders here, even though the ridiculous jumpsuits don’t cut it. Aggieland was ecstatic after beating LSU last weekend, and for good reason—a large portion of non-ATM observers believed LSU was going to seal the deal. No one is sleeping on Texas A&M right now, and the remaining slate features three must-win games before the final showdown with Big Brother at Kyle Field. Buckle up and play with them!

#10 (overall) = Tennessee Volunteers (LW: 9)

Tennessee did nothing (literally) last weekend, but moved down a notch simply because Texas A&M was so damn good against Brian Kelly’s team. It doesn’t help that Orange Sherbet simply doesn’t pair with any other color other than white, and even then it doesn’t belong on any color wheel. A trip to Athens in 3 weeks feels like a loss waiting to happen, and with Vanderbilt trending, the Commodores could beat the Vols by 30 points in Nashville on November 30th. If it were a buy/sell decision, many day traders would consider selling.

#11 (Overall) = Fighting Irish Notre Dame (LW: unranked)

Welcome back, Irishman! We barely remember that you completely lost the script back on September 10th when Northern Illinois ventured to South Bend and ridiculed you in front of Touchdown Jesus and the world. Notre Dame has led since then, including a convincing 51-14 demoralization of No. 24 last week that once again leaves us as the weakest of the believers. Of course, these helmets could have been coated in pyrite (that’s fool’s gold, for all you sidewalk graduates who can’t stand prayers to get into Notre Dame) instead of 24k Au.

#12 (automatic, Group 5) = Boise State Broncos (LW: 12)

The Broncos moved up 2 spots in the national rankings to No. 15, despite not exactly looking like world leaders at UNLV. On the other hand, every weekend planes full of people who spent more at the tables fly out of Sin City than Boise State flirted with a 29-24 win over the Rebels. A win is a win is a win, and with it we maintain the Mountain West’s indoor track and the coveted top record among Group 5 programs. And yet… we see you hiding there, Army!

Dropped: Iowa State Cyclones

What will it look like…

Bye in round 1: Oregon, Miami, Georgia, BYU

1st round games:

• No. 12 Boise State and No. 5 Ohio State (winner plays No. 4 BYU)
• No. 9 Texas A&M and No. 8 Texas (winner plays No. 1 Oregon)
• No. 10 Tennessee and No. 7 Clemson (winner plays No. 2 Miami)
• No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 6 Penn State (winner plays No. 3 Georgia)

Quarterfinal games:

• Winner 12/5 vs. No. 4 BYU
• Winner 9/8 vs. No. 1 Oregon State
• Winner 10/7 vs. No. 2 Miami
• Winner 11/6 vs No. 3 Georgia

Semi-finals:

• 4 seed winner vs 1 seed winner
• 2 seed winner vs 3 seed winner

Championship: January 20, 2025, Atlanta.