Clemson vs. Louisville Score Prediction Using Expert Football Model

After the open weekend, No. 11 Clemson looks to extend its winning streak at home against ACC contender Louisville on Saturday night. Let’s check out the latest game predictions from an expert football model that predicts the score and picks the winners.

Louisville went undefeated and averaged 47 points per game in its first three games, but lost its next two and three of its next five, falling to 3-2 in ACC play but still ranking 10th in the FBS in passing yards with nearly 303 yards per game. average game.

Clemson has won 6 straight games since its season-opening loss to Georgia, outscoring teams by an average of 27 points and scoring 291 points in that span, sitting atop the ACC standings and within striking distance of an automatic berth in the College Football Playoff. entering November.

What do the analytical models suggest when the Tigers and Cardinals meet in this ACC showdown?

To do that, let’s turn to the SP+ forecasting model to get an idea of ​​how Clemson and Louisville compare in this Week 10 college football matchup.

As expected, the models favor the home team, but in the game they will have to work hard to win.

SP+ predicts Clemson would defeat Louisville 33-25. and win the match with an advantage expected difference 7.9 points.

The model gives the Tigers probability 69 percent complete victory over the cardinals.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted college football performance metric” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most consistent and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is this season? The SP+ model is currently 239-221-5 against the spread with a 51.9 winning percentage after going 28-27-1 (50.9%) last weekend.

Clemson is 10.5 point favorite against Louisville, according to updated numbers posted by FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total on 62.5 points per game (Over -115, Under -105).

And that set Clemson’s money line odds at -420 and for Louisville in +320 win outright.

If you are using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take…

If you do, you’ll side with the slight majority of bettors who are picking the Cardinals to give the Tigers the game, according to the latest consensus spread projections.

Louisville is becoming 52 percent bets on either dealing with disappointment straight away or keeping the final score within 10 points in the event of a possible loss.

Another 48 percent betting draft Clemson will win the game and cover the double-digit point spread.

Clemson was 19 points better on average than his opponents this season based on overall win-loss performance.

Louisville did well 4.9 points better than its competitors as mounting losses have eroded the team’s profits over the past few weeks.

Those numbers have diverged over the last three games for both teams.

Clemson has gotten better. 22.7 points better than its opponents over that period, while Louisville’s average is just 0.3 points better than competition.

This location also showcases Clemson’s distinct advantage, namely 28.3 points better than their opponents when they play at home, compared to Louisville, 0.3 points better on the road.

Clemson ranks second among ACC teams with a record Probability 33.7 percent to make the College Football Playoff, according to FPI metrics.

This model gives the Tigers an overall win forecast 9.9 games this season.

Miami (89%) currently leads the ACC in playoff odds this weekend.

Louisville is ranked sixth in the conference with 0.4 percent shot in the playoffs, but will probably play in the postseason Probability 98.8 percent to be eligible for the cup.

Index predicts Cardinals win 7.6 games in ’24.

Most other analytical models also favor a big win for the Tigers over the Cardinals this week.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer forecasting model that uses data from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Clemson takes lead on power play. 67.1 percent from the latest computer simulations of the match.

That leaves Louisville as the projected winner in the remaining 33 percent Sims.

How does this affect the prediction of advantage in the game?

Clemson is projected to be 6.4 points better than Louisville on the same field in updated simulations for both teams, according to the model’s latest projection.

When: Saturday, November 2.
Time: 7:30 pm Eastern Time.
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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