Experts say unrest in the Caribbean has a high chance of spreading to the tropics

The Atlantic Basin began experiencing storms yesterday, and the National Hurricane Center is now tracking three disturbances there. The odds also look higher for potential Tropical Storm Patty in the next week or so.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say this. there is a 60% chance that a broad area of low pressure developing over the southwestern Caribbean could become a tropical depression over the weekend or early next week. Forecasters AccuWeather more pessimistic, which gives almost 90% chance of development.

What they don’t know for sure is how strong it will become and where it will go. An area of high pressure expected to develop over the US East Coast next week could be strong enough to push into Central America.

“If tropical development occurs in the Caribbean next week, there are two scenarios for movement: one towards Central America and the other towards the Yucatan Peninsula,” AccuWeather meteorologist Grady Gilman said. “A more northerly route will increase the risk of collisions with the eastern Gulf coast, likely between November 6 and November 11.”

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Although the conditions that produced Hurricanes Helen and Milton remained the same, the area was relatively quiet due to strong wind shear that prevented showers and thunderstorms from forming. But according to AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva, it will end soon.

“Next week, most of the wind shear will move north of the Caribbean Sea, and so will essentially create a pocket of high ocean temperatures, a lot of moisture and very low wind shear, which will be favorable for tropical development,” DaSilva said. .

NHC is also monitoring two more disturbances, but there is little chance of development for either of them. Wind shear is expected to prevent the storm in the northeastern Caribbean from developing further, and it will likely be absorbed by a storm in the southwest after rain hits the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the northern Leeward Islands .

Another is far out in the North Atlantic, which the NHC calls a “stormy nontropical low pressure area.”” has little chance of further subtropical development over the next few days, but it is moving east.

The 2024 hurricane season isn’t over yet, with November (and even December) storms quite possible. The next named storms of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be Patty and Raphael.

Here are the latest NHC recommendations as of 2 a.m. Friday, November 1:

Tropical Storm Patty? Is another storm or hurricane heading toward Florida?

If Patty develops next week, there are two potential paths depending on conditions.

An area of high pressure expected to develop over the US East Coast next week could decide where this area goes. If it is strong enough, it could carry the storm into Central America. Otherwise, the storm could threaten the Florida coast.

November brings tropical development to Florida, USA

Since 1851 Three hurricanes hit Florida in November.

While in the months leading up to the Atlantic hurricane season there are typically tropical waves off the African coast that warn people ahead of time as they cross the Atlantic, this is not the case during the final month of the season.

“As we move into early November, the focus of tropical development is shifting closer to the United States. Typically the focus late in the season is the Caribbean and the southeast coast,” DaSilva said.

A tropical depression could develop in the Caribbean later this week.

Southwestern Caribbean: A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean over the next day or so. After that, gradual development is possible and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while the system generally drifts north or northwest over the central or western Caribbean Sea.

Regardless of development, localized heavy rainfall is possible in some surrounding areas of the Western Caribbean.

Chance of formation after 48 hours: low, 30 percent.
Chance of formation after 7 days: average, 60 percent.

What else is there and how likely is it that it will intensify?

Northeastern Caribbean and Greater Antilles: Ground observations and satellite wind data indicate that an area of low pressure located near Puerto Rico is causing widespread clouds and showers over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern Leeward Islands and adjacent waters of the Atlantic and Northeast coasts. Caribbean.

Slow development of this system is possible over the next 2-3 days as it moves west-northwestward into the Greater Antilles. After this time, this system is expected to be absorbed by an area of low pressure over the Caribbean Sea. Regardless of developments, localized heavy rainfall is possible over the next few days from the northern Leeward Islands westward through Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.

Chance of formation after 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
Chance of formation after 7 days: low, 10 percent.

North Atlantic: A non-tropical low pressure area of storm strength located about 450 miles west of the western Azores is seeing limited shower activity.

Some subtropical development is possible while the low moves east over the next few days.

Chance of formation after 48 hours: low, 20 percent.
Chance of formation after 7 days: low, 20 percent.

Who is most likely to get hurt?

Regardless of development extensive downpours Most of the Caribbean is expected this week, according to AccuWeather. Life-threatening landslides and flash floods can occur even in the unlikely event that a tropical depression or tropical storm does not develop.

Residents throughout Florida as far as the Carolinas should keep a close eye on the system currently in place in the Caribbean, DaSilva said.

Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and always be prepared.

Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida

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When is Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

Countdown clock: When will hurricane season end?

Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms near your city

What’s next?

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