The rematch will pit Republican Rep. Don Bacon against Democrat Tony Vargas in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.

OMAHA, Neb. – FOR RELEASE AT 12:01 PM ON NOVEMBER. 5 (ELECTION DAY). EDITED BY TJAKOBS.

KP

Nebraska voters will choose representatives for three U.S. House seats on Tuesday, and voters in the state’s Omaha-centric 2nd District will not only decide one of the most competitive House races in the country, but could also influence the outcome of the presidential race.

In a rematch of the 2022 race, Republican incumbent Don Bacon faces a tough challenge from Democratic Sen. Tony Vargas. Recent polls show a tight race in the state’s most demographically and politically diverse district. Both candidates sought to portray themselves as pragmatic problem solvers who eschewed partisanship.

The races in the county have been very tight in recent years. In 2022, Bacon defeated Vargas with 51% of the vote.

The district also has a recent history of supporting Democratic presidential candidates in a solidly Republican state, allowing three of the five Electoral College votes to go to the winners of each congressional district and the other two to the overall winner of the state. Nebraska’s 2nd District has twice given one vote to Democratic presidential candidates—Barack Obama in 2008 and Joe Biden in 2020.

A single electoral vote usually doesn’t get much attention, but with polls showing this year’s presidential race will be tight, the vote has taken on enormous importance in candidates’ efforts to reach the 270 votes needed to win. Scenarios were outlined in which both Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump could find one electoral vote from Nebraska that would give them victory.

This oddity has led Harris and her Democratic groups to spend millions of dollars in Omaha County on campaign advertising and campaign staff in the field in hopes of winning electoral votes. The Trump campaign and Republican groups have spent far less after failing to push the Republican-dominated Legislature to rewrite the state’s rules and move Nebraska to a winner-take-all system of apportioning electoral votes.

Vargas hopes to ride a wave of support from the Democratic presidential ticket, which includes vice presidential candidate Tim Walz, a Nebraska native. Vargas is expected to win overwhelming support from Democratic voters, who make up more than a third of the district’s electorate. But he is also seeking to appeal to the nearly 30% of voters in the district who identify as independents and outsiders, and even some Republicans who are disillusioned with Trump.

To that end, Vargas’ campaign has launched ads aimed at more moderate and conservative voters, including efforts to reduce illegal immigration at the U.S. southern border, cut taxes for the middle class and get tough on crime.

Bacon promoted himself in ads as a bipartisan centrist, seeking to attract voters outside the Republican base. But he has sought to walk a fine line in the swing district, often turning to social media to please his Republican base, including using it to tout his unwavering support for Israel in its war with Hamas and to protect his vote across bipartisan lines. security bill.

In the state’s 1st District, Republican incumbent Rep. Mike Flood is expected to defeat Democratic challenger Carol Blood.

Flood was first elected to the position in a special election in June 2022 to replace former GOP Rep. Jeff Fortenberry, who resigned following a criminal investigation accusing him of lying to federal agents. In this campaign, Flood took a more conservative stance than in previous ones, increasing his support for Trump and blaming Democrats for creating the immigration crisis.

Blood, a state legislator from Bellevue who served in the Legislature with Flood from 2020 through part of 2022, hopes women and other voters frustrated by Republican support for abortion restrictions and Trump will swing the vote in her favor.

Republican Rep. Adrian Smith is expected to easily win a 10th term representing Nebraska’s vast, rural 3rd Congressional District. Smith faces a challenge from Democrat Daniel Ebers, an Overton farmer. For years, voters in the 3rd District have shown no signs of dissatisfaction with Smith, one of the most conservative members of Congress.

Smith’s political views align with those of the district. Not only is it the most conservative district in Nebraska, it is considered one of the most conservative counties in the country. Smith won the last three elections with approximately 80% of the vote.