Florida Projected Path, Spaghetti Model – Carswellfamilyfoundation

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the lower and middle Florida Keys.

Hurricane Rafael formed Tuesday evening in the northwestern Caribbean.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is just over three weeks away, and that’s bad news for Florida and Gulf Coast residents.

However, warm waters and weak wind shear in the Caribbean create conditions favorable for “persistent or rapid intensification,” according to National Hurricane Center.

➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Rafael

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Once Rafael reaches the Gulf of Mexico, it will encounter cooler water and stronger wind shear. landfall along the Gulf Coast expected later this week or over the weekend, according to AccuWeather.

Check out the latest spaghetti designs and satellite images of Raphael.

Spaghetti models for Hurricane Rafael

Special note about spaghetti models: The illustrations include a variety of forecasting tools and models, and not all of them are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the four or five best-performing models to make forecasts.

Hurricane Rafael tracker: where will it go?

Satellite images of Hurricane Rafael

What else does the National Hurricane Center track?

Weather Watches and Warnings Issued in Florida

Atlantic storm tracker

Countdown clock: When will hurricane season end?

When does hurricane season end?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

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What’s next?

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(This story has been updated to add new information.)