Electric vehicle adoption in the U.S. is expected to skyrocket over the next five years – Orange County Register

Art Mihalik

According to a recent study, electric vehicle adoption will skyrocket over the next few years thanks to technological advances, the expansion of public charging stations and market dynamics that should make electric vehicles more accessible to a wider range of consumers.

It is estimated that by the end of this decade, 79% of car buyers will consider purchasing an electric vehicle. Cox Automotive Study: The Path to Electric Vehicle Adoption in 2024. Sales of electric vehicles in the U.S. topped 1 million units for the first time last year, according to Kelley Blue Book sales estimates.

Here are some of the big changes that will happen in the future.

Best batteries

New battery technologies are at the heart of the evolution of electric vehicles, and there are several promising innovations on the horizon. Solid-state, sodium-ion and lithium iron phosphate batteries have the potential to revolutionize the performance and affordability of electric vehicles.

Solid-state batteries promise several advantages over today’s lithium-ion technology, including faster charging times and higher energy density. These batteries replace the liquid electrolyte in traditional lithium-ion cells with a solid electrolyte, resulting in a longer battery life.

Sodium ion batteries use sodium instead of lithium, which is more abundant and cheaper to produce. Sodium-ion batteries can significantly reduce the cost of electric vehicles, especially for low-cost models.

Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries are also gaining popularity as a key technology. Hyundai and Kia recently announced a program to develop LFP batteries that use iron and phosphate as active materials. Research shows that LFP batteries are lighter, safer and have a longer lifespan than lithium-ion batteries.

Expanding charging infrastructure

The study found that the increasing availability of public charging stations will also encourage greater adoption of electric vehicles. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) projects that by 2030, there will be approximately 200,000 public charging stations operating in the United States.

According to NREL, expanding public charging infrastructure, especially the introduction of ultra-fast DC chargers, will significantly reduce charging times, making long-distance EV travel more practical and convenient. DC chargers can provide up to 80% charge in just 10 to 15 minutes, helping to remove one of the perceived barriers to widespread EV adoption.

In addition, home charging solutions are being developed. Wireless charging systems that allow electric vehicles to charge while parked at a charging pad are already being tested and could become mainstream within the next few years. Another innovation, bidirectional charging, will allow owners to use their electric vehicles as a home backup power source.​

Market growth, affordability and demographic shifts

As electric vehicle technology advances and battery manufacturing becomes more efficient, the price of purchasing a new electric vehicle will decrease. A Cox Automotive study suggests that less expensive electric vehicle models will soon hit the market, making electric vehicles more affordable to a wider range of potential buyers. Government incentives such as tax breaks and rebates will continue to play a critical role in reducing the cost of electric vehicles.

Although the EV market is dominated by high-income luxury buyers, the next five years will change significantly as younger, more cost-conscious consumers enter the scene. With more affordable models and a growing market for used electric vehicles, Gen Z and millennials, driven by a focus on sustainability, are expected to play a significant role. Cox Automotive research shows growing interest from these groups, with 77% now considering used electric vehicles, up from 62% just a few years ago.​

Sustainable development

Sustainability remains a top priority for automakers and battery manufacturers, with a focus on reducing the environmental impact of electric vehicles. One solution lies in battery recycling technologies that recover valuable materials such as lithium, cobalt and nickel from used batteries, reducing the need for new mining and minimizing waste.

Equally important are second-life applications, where batteries that have reached the end of their EV life but still retain 70-80% capacity are repurposed for energy storage systems in homes and businesses. This approach extends battery life while supporting the use of renewable energy.

In addition, automakers are moving toward circular economy models in which materials from used batteries are continually recycled and reused to make new batteries. By keeping valuable resources in circulation, this model minimizes the extraction of new raw materials and helps reduce the overall carbon footprint of electric vehicles.

Originally published: October 30, 2024 3:29 pm PT