Forecast for the Clemson-Louisville match: what analysts say

After an open weekend, No. 11 Clemson returns home against Louisville on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest predictions for this match, obtained using an analytical football model that simulates games.

Clemson is on a 6-game winning streak since the opener, beating opponents by an average of 27 points per game, and has been ranked first in the ACC standings since November football.

Louisville was 3-0 and ranked No. 15 in the country until a trip to Notre Dame resulted in the first of two straight losses and three losses in its last five games.

Ahead of this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions based on the Football Power Index computer forecasting model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times, uses key analytics from both teams, and selects winners based on the predicted scoring differential per game.

As expected, the simulations favor the Tigers over the Cardinals at home.

Clemson is expected to win the power play. 67 percent from the latest computer simulations of the match.

That leaves Louisville as the projected winner in the remaining 33 percent Sims.

In total, the Tigers took the lead in 13,400 game index predictions, while the Cardinals were ahead of Clemson in the remaining 6,600 predictions.

How does this affect the prediction of advantage in the game? Expect something close.

Clemson is projected to be 6.4 points better than Louisville on the same field in updated simulations for both teams, according to the model’s latest projection.

If so, it will not be enough to cover the spread.

It’s because Clemson 10.5 point favorite against Louisville, according to updated numbers posted by FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel has set the amount at 63.5 points per game (Over -104, Under -118).

And it lists Clemson’s moneyline odds at: -450 and for Louisville in +340 win outright.

The latest consensus projections for the game show a slight majority giving the Cardinals the edge over the Tigers.

Louisville is becoming 52 percent bets on either winning outright as a result of apathy, or keeping the score within the line.

Another 48 percent betting draft Clemson will win the game and cover the spread.

Clemson ranks second among ACC teams with a record Probability 33.7 percent to make the College Football Playoff, according to FPI metrics.

This model gives the Tigers an overall win forecast 9.9 games this season.

Miami (89%) currently leads the ACC in playoff odds this weekend.

Louisville is ranked sixth in the conference with 0.4 percent shot in the playoffs, but will probably play in the postseason Probability 98.8 percent to be eligible for the cup.

Index predicts Cardinals to win 7.6 games in ’24.

College football Football Power Index (FPI) rankings and computer forecasting models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

The rankings and point projections are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games using a combination of key analytics including current results, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting and team schedule.

Teams are not ranked by talent, as in other rankings, but by projected point differential against the average team on a neutral field.

First place votes in brackets

Oregon (61)
Georgia (1)
Penn State
Ohio
Miami
Texas
Tennessee
Notre Dame
BYU
Texas A&M
Clemson
Iowa
Indiana
Alabama
Boise State
LSU
Kansas
Pittsburgh
Ole Miss
SMU
Army
Washington state
Colorado
Illinois
Missouri

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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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