America’s European allies face difficult times, no matter who wins the presidential election

Jan Lesser, a distinguished fellow at the German Marshall Fund in Brussels, said that “above all, Europe is looking for predictability from Washington,” something that is missing in a turbulent world in which any administration will face other demands for its attention. “But the potential for disruption is clearly greater with a potential Trump administration.”

“There is an assumption of significant continuity” under Harris, which is likely well-founded, he said, since many of the people who shaped policy under Biden are likely to remain. “This is very much a known world, even if the strategic environment itself creates uncertainty.”

Although both the United States and Europe are increasingly focused on competition with Asia, the ongoing war in Europe means that “the potential costs of retreat from European security on the American side are much higher today than they might have been a few years ago.” – Lesser said. Europe’s ability to deal with this depends on how quickly it happens, he said.

Europe’s lagging defense spending has irritated U.S. administrations on both sides for years, although NATO members including Germany have stepped up their game since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. NATO forecasts that 23 of 32 allies will meet their target of spending 2% or more of gross domestic product on defense this year, up from three countries a decade ago.

Europeans see the war in Ukraine as an existential challenge in a way that the United States ultimately fails to see, even as Europe itself shows some signs of war fatigue.

If Trump wins, “there is every indication that he is not interested in continuing to support Ukraine in this war” and will quickly push for some kind of ceasefire or peace deal that Kyiv may not like and to which Europe may not be willing. ready. – said Thausenfreund. “And Europe simply does not have the capacity to fill the remaining military gap if the US withdraws support.”

“Even under the Harris administration, there is a growing and changing debate — frankly, on both sides of the Atlantic — about what comes next in the war in Ukraine and what its endgame is,” Lesser said.

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who honored Biden with Germany’s highest honor for his contributions to transatlantic relations, hopes Biden’s countrymen are listening.

“I hope that in the coming months, Europeans will remember: America is indispensable to us,” he said. “And I also hope that Americans remember: your allies are indispensable to you. We are more than just ‘other countries’ in the world – we are partners, we are friends.”

Regardless of who wins the White House, the coming years could be challenging.

“Whatever the outcome next week, half the country will leave angry,” Lesser said, noting that there is “every chance” of a split in the government in Washington. “Europe will face a very chaotic and sometimes dysfunctional America.”

___

Associated Press writer Lorne Cook in Brussels contributed to this report.