John Middleton Expects Phillies Payroll to Increase, and Juan Soto Isn’t the Only Option

It wasn’t just about Los Angeles versus New York, or Hollywood versus Broadway, or even Ohtani versus Judge. And it certainly wasn’t Ice Cube vs. Fat Joe, a pregame rap mismatch if ever there was one.

At its core, the 120th World Series it was also about money.

Big money.

A year after the three teams with the highest payrolls (Mets, Yankees, Padres) missed the playoffs, the Dodgers and Yankees made up the Fall Classic matchup with the second- and third-highest payrolls fee, receiving $351 million and $314 million, respectively, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts and calculated for luxury tax purposes.

Phyllis lived in an equally expensive area, although they went home There are two rounds left before the World Series. They won the NL East with the fifth-largest payroll in baseball: $261 million, which cleared the second luxury tax threshold. They will therefore face a tax penalty of approximately $13 million, bringing their total costs to a club record $274 million.

That’s a huge price to pay for one postseason win.

It’s fair to wonder, then, whether the wage bill will increase again next season, and if so, by how much?

With the free agent market opening Monday and general managers scheduled to meet next week in San Antonio, how much financial flexibility does the president of baseball operations have? Dave Dombrowski will you have to change the composition? Could the Phillies add another high-paid player or just make margin adjustments?

“Given where we are in the contract cycles and people coming into the minor leagues, I expect the player payroll to be higher (than this year) rather than lower,” owner John Middleton told The Inquirer this week. “I would be surprised if he was the same, and I would be stunned, very stunned, if he was lower. I don’t see it being any lower.”

The truth is that the Phillies have no choice but to maintain payroll levels. They have $220.5 million in commitments through 2025 to 11 players, including seven – Zack Wheeler, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Aaron Nola, JT Realmuto, Nick CastellanosAnd Kyle Schwarber — which will earn at least $20 million. Nine more players are awaiting salary increases through arbitration.

But the Phillies have also trespassed into luxury tax territory for three years in a row, raising the tax rate to 50%. Over the years, other team owners, including the Steinbrenner family, found themselves in a similar predicament, have waived the threshold for one year to reset the tax penalty to 20%.

Instead, Middleton signaled that he would consider increasing the salary even beyond the third threshold – $281 million next year – if the opportunity to add another impact player arises. Never mind that the Phillies will receive a 92.5% premium on every dollar over $281 million and their 2026 first-round draft pick will move back 10 spots.

“In terms of the right player,” Middleton said, “I have a high degree of confidence that Dave and I will hit the third limit.”

Okay, press pause. There is only one true offensive player on the free agent market. But before you rush to get Juan Soto’s name and number 22 stitched on your red striped jersey, keep in mind the Yankees want to keep him — “I hope he’s here forever,” manager Aaron Boone told reporters this week – and will be motivated. after the World Series disappointment. And in free agency, the Bronx Bombers usually get the players they want, although not as often since Hal Steinbrenner took over for his late father.

The Yankees expect Mets owner Steve Cohen, the richest man in baseball, to make a cross-town challenge. The Giants and Blue Jays, bridesmaids in their bids for free agents Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, have money to spend. Never rule out the Dodgers.

Soto, the greatest scientist of all time, will go to the highest bidder. And thanks to his age (he turned 26 on Oct. 25) and talent, bidding is expected to rise to at least $40 million annually and $500 million overall, and possibly more.

The Phillies will do what they have to do as a contender in a big market, just like they did last year. with prize free agent pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto. They are expected to request and receive a meeting with Soto. Surely they will try to convince him, using his relationship with Turner and especially hitting coach Kevin Long.

(Long coached Soto for four seasons at the Nationals, and the two became so close that Soto invited Long to join him and agent Scott Boras in the front row at Dodger Stadium, rooting for Turner and Max Scherzer in wild-card play in 2021. Soto wore a Nationals jersey with Turner’s name and number.)

Soto’s elite discipline makes him a perfect fit for a Phillies lineup filled with hitters who tend to swing hard outside the strike zone. But let’s be honest: Soto is perfect for 30 teams. Only a few can afford it, so he and Boras will keep as many options open as possible.

“I don’t know all the teams that are after me, but I’m definitely willing to listen.” Soto told reporters after losing the World Series finale in Game 5 at Yankee Stadium. “I don’t have closed doors. I’m available to all 30 teams.”

Let’s assume, however, that Soto returns to New York – either the Bronx or Queens. The Phillies could use their financial power in other ways.

To wit: The Brewers will reportedly exercise their $10.5 million option on closer Devin Williams, which would make him the club’s highest-paid hitter since Eric Gagne in 2008. Williams could become a free agent after next season. Milwaukee also had one of the best bullpens in baseball this year, despite Williams missing four months with a back injury.

The Brewers traded ace Corbin Burns before his final year leading the team. Would they have done the same with Williams, who had a 1.25 ERA and went 14-for-15 in saves but gave up a crushing homer to the Mets’ Pete Alonso in the postseason?

“We have to stay open-minded,” Brewers general manager Matt Arnold told reporters a few weeks ago. “We’re the smallest market in the league, so that’s what’s needed where we are. … I still think he’s the best player in baseball and I’m glad I have him.”

Phyllis group of high-ranking pitchers will undergo changes. Matt Strahm Jose AlvaradoAnd Orion Kerkering are set to return, but Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez are free agents.

“It’s hard for me to imagine that, under the circumstances, you would end up getting both of them back,” Dombrowski said. “Because my understanding is that they will both be offered long-term contracts for a lot of money, which they will be looking for. I don’t think we’re spending that kind of money on two relievers.”

But the Phillies could take Williams’ salary for one year and assign him to the ninth inning, then bring back, say, Hoffman as the starting right fielder. Other players who are eligible for salary arbitration and could end up on the market include the Cardinals’ Ryan Helsley, the Giants’ Camilo Doval and the Nationals’ Kyle Finnegan.

Nothing about the postseason suggests that spending more money is not a viable strategy.

Money itself does not produce the trophy that is Middleton. desperately trying to get it back. The team with the highest payroll hasn’t won the World Series since 2018, when the Red Sox, who, by the way, are managed by Dombrowski, brought $239.5 million in payroll (and a $12 million tax bill) to the championship.

But spending more on elite players can certainly help the team get closer. Over the past three seasons, 22 teams have overpaid the luxury tax; 16 players have made the playoffs, including the Phillies three years in a row. Their luxury tax payroll rose from $209 million in 2021 to $244 million, $255 million and $261 million, and their regular season win totals increased from 82 to 87, 90 and 95.

This is hardly a coincidence. And to finally get over the top, Middleton may have to raise his salary even higher if Dombrowski finds a player who can make a difference.

“John is very kind and generous, but you’re also in a position where you’re still working on payroll and trying to make everything work for you and go into the future with what you have,” Dombrowski said. “But I have no indication that we are not going to continue to aggressively pursue aggressive payroll.”