The opinion of an expert from Australia on the eve of the large Flemington Group 1

The first Tuesday of November is almost here in Australia and that means one thing: Melbourne Cup Day.

First held in 1861, the Melbourne Cup is the largest horse race Down Under and one of the country’s most significant annual sporting events. In Melbourne, Tuesday is a public holiday and a sell-out crowd is expected to descend on Flemington. Elsewhere, thousands of people will take the day off to attend local races, place bets on races or take part in office cleaning.

Since Vintage Crop won the Cup for Dermot Weld and Michael Kinane in 1993, the Cup has become an international event. This year, horses from the UK, Ireland and Japan will compete in the two-mile handicap race, with three jockeys from Hong Kong also flying in to take part in the race.

A record four female jockeys will also compete in the race that will stop the nation, including British riders Rachel King and Holly Doyle, and local superstar Jamie Kah.

Before we begin, we need to talk about our friend Ian.

One of the big talking points in Melbourne this year has been Aidan O’Brien’s Jan Brueghel St Leger victory, sparking heated debate on both sides of the globe. I’m not here to quarrel with my British and Irish friends, but I think it’s worth raising a couple of points that may have been missed in the discussion of this issue.

The Melbourne Cup is a three-minute showcase for racing to showcase itself to the general public, and what happens in a race is considered the norm in racing in general by those who are not fans of the sport. In an era where social license and the welfare of horses are of paramount importance, racing in this country cannot afford to have horses break down in the Melbourne Cup, as happened to O’Brien’s Cliffsofmoher and Anthony Van Dijk, and before that Werema and Red Cado suffered catastrophic race injuries.

As a result, Racing Victoria introduced strict veterinary protocols for racing horses in 2021 and the Cup has been incident-free since then. However, the authorities are right not to rest on their laurels, as another accident in the Cup will seriously damage racing in the eyes of the public, and therefore all the precautions now being taken are necessary.

While it was believed that the European visitors were deliberately targeted by the protocols, it is difficult to argue that this was the case when locally trained gallopers Muramasa and Braden Star were withdrawn from the Cup for failing to pass veterinary checks. as is New Zealand stayer Mahrajaan.

Let’s hope we see Aidan O’Brien at the Melbourne Cup in the future; we still want stars like Vintage Crop, Dunaden and Cross Counter to race, but more importantly we want the Cup to be a safe race that the sport can proudly showcase to all walks of life.

Okay, now let’s get started finding this year’s Melbourne Cup winner.

Redemption for Willie

Although Aidan O’Brien won’t be competing in the Melbourne Cup this year, luck could still be on the Irishman’s side thanks to Willie Mullins and his two runners: Vauban and Absurd.

The pair, especially Vauban, enjoyed great success in last year’s race but suffered a setback, with Vauban finishing 14th and Absurde doing slightly better in 7th. Mullins has changed his approach to preparing them for the race this time, sending them to Melbourne closer to Cup Day than last year, having them ready and ready to go when they land here, and only bringing them to Flemington on race day as unlike twelve months ago when it felt like they were running at a running gallop a week before the big day.

Vauban has shown the classiest form of the race, winning the Lonsdale Cup at York and posting excellent results behind top-class stayer Kyprios in the Gold Cup and most recently in the Irish St Leger. The absurdity should also not be ignored: Mullins described him as a developing horse who is maturing mentally, and he was a dominant winner at Chester last time out.

Both horses had good luck in the draw on Saturday night, with Vauban allocated hurdle 11 and Hurdle Absurd seven, making things easier for William Buick and Kerryn McEvoy respectively. That became even more important after arch-local rival Buckaroo broke barrier 21 in a race lacking depth.

Victory in the Melbourne Cup would cap a remarkable 2024 for Mullins, who won the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Grand National earlier this year, and he described the Flemington Showcase as the biggest flat race in the world that he could win with this type of racing. the horses he buys.

British challengers will make an impact

One of the great aspects of international racing is that the form of one part of the world does not always transfer to another jurisdiction, with some horses adapting better to new climates and styles of racing than others.

While Vauban may have the class advantage, Onesmoothoperator and Sea King proved they have settled well into life in Australia with victories in key preliminary races – the Geelong Cup and Bendigo Cup respectively. Onesmoothoperator was particularly impressive at Geelong as he entered the race well and then accelerated strongly to build modest pace, which could be a useful attribute on Tuesday as there doesn’t look to be much pace in the race. .

In the case of Sea King, trained by Harry Eustace, he was able to endure a long run to win the Bendigo Cup, and horses that had won this race in recent years ran well in the Melbourne Cup six days later, albeit without much effort. victory.

If Sea King salutes the Melbourne Cup, it will be the second time the Eustace family has won the race, with Harry’s brother David winning it in 2022 with Gold Trip.

Locals

Buckaroo is the logical favorite for the race and meets key local Melbourne Cup criteria. Buckaroo, previously trained in Ireland by Joseph O’Brien, is now trained by Chris Waller and has found his best form as a gelding this spring. He won the Group One Underwood Stakes at Caulfield three starts ago and then finished second to Via Sistina in the Turnbull Stakes, who then destroyed his rivals in the Cox Plate.

In his last race, Buckaroo finished second in the premier Melbourne Cup race, the Caulfield Cup, where he finished strongly, an encouraging sign for a horse climbing 3200m. However, Barrier 21 does present a challenge as he may be forced to settle down again during the run and will need luck in the run to play a significant role in the finish.

Godolphin mare Zardozi appeared to be perfectly prepared for Tuesday’s task. Last year’s Oaks winner, the James Cummings-trained stayer came home with dignity in the Caulfield Cup but then turned heads with a quick fifth place finish in the Empire Rose Stakes over 1600m on Saturday.

Cummings may have followed the proven formula of his grandfather Bart, who won twelve Melbourne Cups and had a rule that his Cup horses had to race on Derby Day before entering the grand final on Tuesday. Hong Kong jockey Andrea Atzeni will fly to Melbourne to ride Zardozi, having first met her in the Caulfield Cup.

Final Analysis

To me this all points to VAUBANN.

Willie Mullins is one of the greatest trainers in the world and has a different plan in place for him ahead of this year’s race as he wants to bring his best performance to Flemington and learn from the mistakes made in 2023. This time the field is weaker and, if anything, he is in better shape this time.

Zardozi She appears to be tuned for maximum performance, has been trained to the minute, is lightweight and handles obstacles well.

One smooth operator He looked amazing at Geelong, he also has lightweight top jockey Craig Williams on board and he has the right racing style to suit how this race is likely to go.

Buckaroo he has the best diploma of the local racing horses, but the draw is tough and he is not sure he will make it to the two-mile course. Victoria’s top trainer Ciaron Maher has four competitors in the race and speaks highly of Okita Sushichances, so it can be viewed from both sides.

Forecast:

1. VAUBANN

14. Zardozi

13. One smoothing operator

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