Elon Musk’s plans to go to Mars… within two years | Science

Few public figures are as controversial as Elon Musk, founder of SpaceX. His outlandish sayings, extravagant lifestyle and political interference make him look like a James Bond villain bent on conquering—and possibly destroying—the world.

But there’s another side to Musk: he’s a superb engineer and visionary. Whether it is due to his innovative ideas or his ability to surround himself with the best engineers, the fact remains that in just a few years his company Tesla and SpaceX have made a real revolution in their field; others, such as Neuralink, may do so in the future. It was he who insisted on the implementation of concepts such as the recoverable rocket.

Musk is known for his amazing statements and predictions. Reality has shown that many of them came true, although much slower than predicted. Now he has just announced his intention to send not one, but five unmanned spacecraft to Mars, taking advantage of the launch window that opens in 2025.

Musk’s ultimate goal is to launch his Starship super rocket at hourly intervals. This is why it is important that its lower half can maneuver back to the launch turret. This way, it can be quickly placed on the launch pad to check the condition of the engines, replace damaged ones and attach the second stage. It can then be refueled and started again.

Is it possible to maintain this pace? Not now, since the lower part of the rocket, known as the super-heavy launch vehicle, is still being tested, but in two years it seems feasible. Boca Chica, Texas, already has two launch towers, although the second has not yet opened. The third was installed at Exit 39A at the Kennedy Center. Once all three launch vehicles are ready to go, SpaceX will theoretically be able to launch three Super Heavy boosters almost simultaneously.

The Super Heavy launch vehicle is recoverable, and each mission lasts less than a quarter of an hour – that’s how long it takes to reach an altitude of about 70 kilometers, slow down and return to base. Thus, it would be enough for SpaceX to have a fleet of three launchers, one for each site. Maybe two or three more as a precaution. After all, they are relatively inexpensive; the most expensive is a propulsion system with 33 Raptor engines.

Today, SpaceX produces engines at a rate of one per day. With the upcoming introduction of a new model that widely uses 3D printingthis figure can be doubled.

Why so much excitement about the launch? Because the second stage, which includes the starship, only has enough fuel to enter Earth orbit. Future missions to the Moon or Mars will require in-flight refueling with methane and oxygen, another important operation that remains to be tested.

SpaceX engineers plan to use a fleet of tanker spacecraft that will automatically dock with the main spacecraft to replenish its tanks as quickly as possible and avoid evaporation losses. Each interplanetary journey would require six to twelve cargo ships, which may or may not be salvageable.

Musk estimates that the cost of each recharge launch will be minimal. The first stage, the most expensive, is recoverable; the second stage is nothing more than a casing, which is produced in an industrial complex in Boca Chica, right next to the ramp. It’s cheap and quick to build because it’s made from stainless steel rather than exotic materials like lightweight aluminum alloys and carbon fiber. While many details remain under wraps, it appears that SpaceX is assembling these bodies almost sequentially, straight from rolls of metal coming from a rolling mill.

The bottleneck may be the supply of thousands of liters of methane and oxygen needed to maintain a constant hourly launch rate. Currently, the “reservoir park” adjacent to the launch tower is enough to refuel one rocket, and not several in a row. Both Boca Chica and Kennedy are on the coast, so some are proposing to build a wharf and a small gas pipeline so fuel can be delivered in large methane tankers.

In principle, orbital fuel cargo ships would also be recoverable, meaning they would be protected from heat upon re-entry. Each of them only carries six engines, which may be worth reusing, although they also don’t represent a prohibitive cost, and if time is of the essence, Musk may choose to destroy them after delivery. This won’t be the first time. Regarding the recent launch of Europa Clipper, which required a high exit speed, SpaceX decided to lose all three rocket bodies in order to squeeze every last drop of fuel out of them.

In any case, after the successful capture of the first stage, it is likely that subsequent efforts will be aimed at the most complex refueling maneuver in space. Apart from Musk’s plans to explore Mars, the fact is that this operation will be important for the lunar lander that NASA contracted under the Artemis program to fly to the Moon. Mars has no date other than Musk’s diary; Luna does.

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