Bad media reports you’ll hear tomorrow*

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Today is election day, and this can only mean one thing: bad election results are already on the way, and bad mail– elections are almost upon us. We’re predicting fifteen such options, and if history is any guide, you might hear sleep-deprived reporters and pundits echoing on cable news or listening to X tomorrow – or whenever the result is finally announced – depending whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins. and any procedural machinations.

If Harris wins:

“Sources close to Trump say his mood is somber but defiant; he clicks on links and discusses his next steps on the phone with friends and advisers.”
The “Trump mood” report dates back to 2017, and his defiance should be assumed at this stage.

“This is the end of Trump’s political career.” (See also: “Our Long National Nightmare is Over.”)
It didn’t happen last time, and it won’t happen this time.

“Trump’s defeat will finally force a serious reckoning within the Republican Party.” (See also: “The battle for the soul of the Republican Party is just beginning.”)
This actually happened after January 6, 2021—for about five minutes. Otherwise, Trump has complete control of the modern Republican Party, and there is no reason to think that will change anytime soon.

“Now Kamala Harris must fulfill her campaign promise and unite America.” (See also: “Why hasn’t Harris said which Republican she’ll appoint to her cabinet yet?” and “Kamala Harris should help the country heal by dropping federal charges against Trump and granting him pardons for any crimes inside or outside the country.” positions .”)
Change Harris’s name to Joe Biden’s and this opinion was usually expressed after the 2020 elections. But as we wrote thenthe president cannot force unity on opponents who refuse to be united. (Also, promoting “unity” does not require the president to constantly agree with his opponents on every policy or include them in his cabinet.)

“Why doesn’t Kamala Harris do more interviews?”
Expect to hear this unless Harris makes meeting Dana Bash a priority in the first week after the election.

If Trump wins:

“Kamala Harris should have done more interviews!”
There was time when it was true. Since then she has given many interviews.

“Kamala Harris failed to define herself.”
There may be some valid criticism lurking here somewhere, but at this point it’s mostly a lazy and tired cliché about Harris…one that the media themselves helped reinforce.

“J.D. Vance was a brilliant candidate for vice president, although the media mocked him.”
He had Consistently high unfavorable ratings; Besides, the choice of vice president doesn’t really matter. Vance was chosen to spar with the mediaand that’s what he did.

“At the end of the day, no one cared about Trump’s threats to democracy or the events of January 6th.”
Many people are concerned about Trump’s threats to democracy and the events of January 6th.

“President-elect Donald Trump spoke there, vowing to be a president for all Americans and adopting, at least for now, a much more presidential tone.”
If I can promise that you will actually hear any of these bad choices, it will be this one.

Who will win:

“(Minor event X) and/or (supposedly monolithic demographic group Y) turned out to be decisive in this election.”
Biden (allegedly) calling Trump supporters trash? Nope. Harris campaigning with Liz Cheney? Not either. America is a complex country, and this will be a difficult and close election; even if a particular event or demographic appears to have influenced the outcome, it certainly won’t happen in a vacuum or against a static baseline.

“Once again we see a nation hopelessly divided between two competing realities.” (See also: something about the Rorschach test.)
Time to retire it’s a cliche and think carefully about how it happened and what it means.

“The polls and/or probability models were wrong.”
Okay, that may well be true, but there’s nothing easier than criticizing polls before a proper autopsy of their real strengths and weaknesses has been done. (Polls were quickly condemned in 2016 for example, but were actually quite good in retrospect.) And experts often misunderstand the value of polls—and their much-maligned cousin, probability models—and what they do and do not report, which is a particularly dangerous pitfall in the race for margin of error. Ultimately, no one can predict the future.

If vote counting takes several days:

“(Candidate X) catches up with (candidate Y) in (fluctuating state Z).”
In 2020, cable networks used such a dynamic language (Biden is in a “faster car”) to describe the fluctuating totals as votes are counted. This was understandable, but, as we wrote at the time, it inadvertently reinforced Trump’s claims that the results were somehow being adjusted in real time rather than reflecting the reporting lag that had occurred by state-by-state voting deadlines. The picture this year may be more complex than Biden’s. faster car due to the seemingly less clear division between advance voting and election day, a welcome opportunity to do away with this kind of coverage entirely.

If Trump refuses to accept the result:

“Trump seeks to overturn the result.”
This is not Lord of the Rings.

John Allsop is a freelance journalist whose work has appeared in New York Review of Books, New YorkerAnd Atlanticamong other retail outlets. He writes the CJR newsletter. Media today. Find him on Twitter @Jon_Allsop.