The fight for control of Congress is too close to call as states begin counting votes • Ohio Capital Journal

WASHINGTON — Republicans and Democrats began tallying their victories in congressional districts and Senate races Tuesday night, eager to see who will be in the majority and set the agenda for the next two years, although it could be days or even weeks before that happens. will be completely resolved.

The two dozen upcoming House races and several unsuccessful Senate campaigns are likely to head to recounts or even lawsuits, possibly delaying the calling of the race and a clear understanding of exactly who voters have chosen to represent them in the race. Capitol Hill.

The Senate was trending toward a shift from a Democratic to a Republican majority, but it was far from final and would be determined by vote counts in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Voters in Florida, Nebraska and Texas could also play a role in determining Senate control, although those seats, held by Sens. Rick Scott, Deb Fischer and Ted Cruz respectively, are considered safer for the GOP than the other seven.

How can this end

There are four possible scenarios for the 119th Congress, which is scheduled to begin on January 3, 2025, leaving aside the question of which party controls the White House and will cast the deciding vote in a possible 50-50 Senate:

• Republicans maintain the majority in the House of Representatives and Democrats maintain the majority in the Senate, maintaining the balance of power that currently exists in Congress.

• Democrats flipped the House of Representatives and Republicans took back the Senate, maintaining a divided Congress in which the opposing party controls each chamber.

• Republicans retain their majority in the House and regain control of the Senate for unified GOP control.

• Democrats hold the Senate and flip the House for unified Democratic control.

Each option has major implications for the next president’s legislative agenda, his ability to quickly assemble a Cabinet through Senate confirmations and whether he can advance judicial nominations through the upper chamber, including possible Supreme Court nominees.

A divided Congress will require the next president to hold bipartisan negotiations on binding legislation and make concessions to the opposing party to get any major policy changes through Congress.

Unified control of Congress for both Democrats and Republicans could mean more legislative movement, although whether those bills become law will depend on who occupies the Oval Office.

The Sabato Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics projected Monday that voters would give Republicans a 52-seat majority in the Senate and Democrats an extremely narrow and likely problematic 218-217 majority in the House.

Managing editor Kyle Kondik, associate editor J. Miles Coleman and director Larry J. Sabato wrote in their analysis that if “the Chamber is actually as close as we suspect, then the majority likely won’t be known for weeks , especially when it all comes down to races in California, where votes can take weeks to be counted.”

“In all likelihood, the actual majority will be at least slightly larger for whoever wins it, although both sides are open to another tiny majority,” they wrote.

In their analysis, they noted that “Republicans have been the favorites to win the Senate majority for months,” although they wrote that Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump winning another term in the White House “could easily lead to a larger victory Republicans in the Senate.”

Ahead of Senate confirmation

The Associated Press, the news organization the state newsroom turns to for calls on race based on its decades of experiencehas announced 11 Senate races but has not named any of the toss-up states as of 8 p.m. ET.

Republican U.S. Rep. Jim Banks won his first Senate campaign in deep red Indiana and West Virginia Republican Governor Jim Justice turned the seat over currently owned by Joe Manchin III. Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn, Florida Sen. Rick Scott and Mississippi Sen. Roger Wicker, all Republicans, easily won re-election in their states.

Democratic Sens. Chris Murphy of Connecticut, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island all won re-election, as did independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who typically votes with Democrats, according to the AP.

New Jersey voters U.S. Rep. Andy Kim elected to Senate while Delaware elected U.S. Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester.

Republicans’ path to regaining control of the Senate likely runs through Montana and Ohio, although leaders were hoping for additional victories.

Montana Democratic Sen. Jon Tester has spent months campaigning for a fourth term while Republican Tim Sheehy tried to defeat the centrist who chairs the Veterans Affairs Committee and the Defense Appropriations subcommittee.

In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown, first elected to the Senate in 2006 and chairman of the Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, was hoping to fend off a challenge from Republican Bernie Moreno against long odds.

Senate control is slightly more important to the next president than having his party lead the House, since the upper chamber is charged with vetting and confirming Cabinet secretaries, several key executive branch appointments, judicial nominees and Supreme Court justices.

Unlike the House of Representatives, where lawmakers face re-election or resignation every two years, senators are elected to six-year terms, meaning about one-third of the House’s members vote during a given election year.

There are 34 Senate seats up for re-election this year, 23 of which are held by Democrats and 11 controlled by Republicans.

House draw

The AP had called 61 of the 435 House races as of 8 p.m. ET, but many of the toss-up races were still too close to determine a winner.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball wrote in its analysis that “the battle for the House of Representatives has been a toss-up for virtually the entire cycle” and that its pundits generally expected that “the winner of the President and the House of Representatives will likely be the same.”

A total of 218 seats are needed to control the House, although that is the bare minimum for a House whose members routinely miss votes, take long leaves of absence due to illness or injury and sometimes resign mid-session.

Republican leaders have struggled to pass party bills over the past two years with a razor-thin majority that is currently split 220-212, and Democratic leadership is likely to do the same if Sabato’s predictions come true.

Kondik, Coleman and Sabato wrote in their analysis that if “Democrats end up winning the House this year, it would be the first time since 1952 that a majority has changed hands in a presidential year.”

This story is developing and will be updated.

Last updated: 19:51, November 5, 2024