Trump won the support of young men, but also won the support of young women

“We’re seeing a shift to the right among young people, or a shift toward Trump, if you will,” said Abby Chiesa, the center’s deputy director.

Democratic presidential candidates enjoyed a “significant double-digit advantage” among young voters as recently as 2008, Kiessa said.

The analysis shows a major shift among young people who supported Trump from 56 to 42 percent. In 2020, young people voted for Biden at almost the same level: 56 percent to 41 percent.

Trump was particularly popular among young white men, winning 63 percent of the vote, while young white women split their votes. Young men and women of color favored Harris, with the exception of Hispanic men, who were evenly split.

Young women also showed higher levels of support for Trump, a surprising result given the primacy of abortion rights in the campaign and the possibility of electing the nation’s first female president.

While young women backed Harris by a decisive 58-40 margin, they voted for Biden by a nearly 2-1 margin in 2020, and Democrats were counting on similar support this time.

Based on exit poll data, Tufts researchers estimate that turnout among young voters has fallen to about 42 percent after reaching historic levels in 2020, when half of voters under 30 voted. According to the researchers, turnout figures may change slightly after all the votes are counted.

Job availability and the overall economy were the top issues that drove young voters to the polls for Trump, according to the analysis. When Tufts researchers surveyed voters ages 18 to 34 earlier this fall, cost of living and inflation were the “most pressing concerns.”

“This is a very heavily indebted generation that is also struggling to rebuild their careers and their incomes post-pandemic,” Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg, director of CIRCLE, said Thursday. “They were the first to be laid off (and) the last to return to gainful employment at a living wage. So the economy could actually be a real issue that really resonated with young people.”

While many young voters also viewed access to abortion as a key issue after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, ending the federal constitutional right to abortion in the United States, the economy and inflation consistently topped polls conducted by throughout the entire year.

“That doesn’t mean young people don’t have other concerns,” Kiessa said. “I just think there are a lot of connections to other economic and employment issues, so it’s not necessarily a single issue-focused mindset.”

Nora Longing, 20, said she was focused on women’s rights and reproductive health when she voted for Harris, her first vote in a presidential election. When the Northeastern University student woke up Wednesday, she could hardly believe Trump had won.

“I was very upset,” Longing said from New York. “I cried a couple of times. I now saw other women withdrawn from communication. It’s hard to keep a happy face.”

Jack Douchy, 19, of New York, who also attends Northeastern University, voted for Trump, believing he would secure the southern border, reduce inflation and reform public health care.

“I voted for him because of politics, at least the politics that I see in my daily life,” Douchy said.

Justin Locker, 21, vice president of the Tufts University Republicans, said Democrats have a hard time connecting with young men and their views on masculinity.

“The Democrats’ view of masculinity doesn’t resonate with Gen Z men,” he said Wednesday. “I think in trying to put forward Doug (Emhoff, Harris’ husband) and Tim Waltz as models of masculinity, men just stood up and said no.”

Miles Rucker, a 19-year-old from Boulder, Colorado, who is attending Northeastern University, said he voted for Harris but was not surprised to see Trump’s popularity among other men his age.

“He did a phenomenal job,” Rucker said. “He has done podcasts with a lot of big figures who are very relevant in our social media space. … When he received the endorsement from Joe Rogan, it completely increased his popularity and popularity (popular streamer). Podcast by Adin Ross. I mean it was absolutely crazy, one of the most apolitical people in the world, but he knew what he was doing and he knew how to engage the minds of young voters.”

John Della Volpe, director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, agreed that Trump’s success among young people is due in no small part to his willingness to have long, free conversations with a variety of online influencers popular among young people. . None more so than Rogan, who boasts the largest following of any podcaster on Spotify and endorsed Trump on Monday.

“There are few platforms bigger than Joe Rogan,” Della Volpe said Wednesday. “Whether we like it or not, he is the Oprah Winfrey of this generation.”

Rogan invited Harris to do an interview at his podcast studio in Austin, Texas, but her campaign said their schedules did not work out. On Wednesday, a number of media experts said Harris missed an opportunity by not appearing on Rogan.

Trump also recorded interviews with the NELK Boys, Ross and comedian Theo Von. His efforts to reach young male voters by appearing on the platforms they tune into have clearly paid off, Della Volpe said.

“He was able to talk to them, motivate them and mobilize them, just like he promised,” Della Volpe said.

Della Volpe, whose research focuses on young Americans, said he also could see Republicans pulling even deeper away from Democrats with young women in the coming years. In focus groups this summer and fall, young women expressed great concern about abortion rights, as well as worries about the economy and inflation.

“This was a difficult choice for many young voters who believed that voting for Harris was about reproductive health and voting for Trump was about personal financial independence,” he said. “And it appears that in recent days more women have found the economic argument stronger than the abortion argument. That doesn’t mean abortion wasn’t an important issue, but they are voters deciding more than one issue.”

In the Northeast, Yulan Wang, 19, voted for Harris and said she believed gender bias was a factor in young people’s support for Trump.

“I think there are still a lot of deep-seated biases in society that can come out in voting, unconsciously or consciously, especially among men who may have such biases,” Wang said. “It’s harder to understand the idea of ​​a woman being in power and in control.”

Jennifer Nguyen, 18, a Northeastern student from Boston who voted for Harris, said young people see Trump less as a candidate and more as a “symbol of the Republican Party.”

“So when that one person stands up for them and their rights and their beliefs, it gives them confidence in him and faith in everything he says,” she said.

Trump’s performance among young voters varied by race and gender. About 54 percent of white voters backed Trump, while 75 percent of black or African-American voters backed Harris. About 58 percent of young Hispanic or Latino voters also voted for Harris, while 72 percent of young Asian voters preferred Harris, according to the analysis.

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Nick Stoico can be reached at [email protected]. Sabrina Lam can be reached at [email protected]. Ozzie Byrdsell can be reached at [email protected].