BYU vs. Utah Score Prediction Using Expert Football Model

Back-to-back Big 12 in-state rivalries begin this Saturday when No. 9 conference title contender BYU hits the road against Utah in the Holy War. Let’s check out the latest game predictions using an expert football analytics model that predicts scores and picks winners.

Utah was an undefeated contender for the Big 12 title a month ago, but has since lost four straight games and sits just 1-4 in a ranking where it is projected to dominate.

BYU is one of the five remaining undefeated teams in college football, reaching an 8-0 record and taking sole possession of first place in the Big 12 after losing to Iowa State.

What do the analytical models suggest if the Cougars and Utes meet in Big 12 play?

To do that, let’s turn to the SP+ forecasting model to get an idea of ​​how BYU and Utah compare in this Week 11 college football game.

As expected, the models favor the Cougars over the Utes, but by a very small margin.

SP+ predicts BYU to beat Utah by a landslide predicted score 25 to 23 and win the game with an advantage expected difference 1.7 points in progress.

Model gives Cougars probability 54 percent winning the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted college football performance metric” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most consistent and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is this season? The SP+ model is currently 262-244-7 against the spread with a 51.8 winning percentage after going 23-23-2 (50%) last weekend.

BYU is 2.5 point favorite against Utah, according to updated numbers posted by FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total on 40.5 points per game (Over -105, Under -115).

And he set the money line odds for BYU at -140 and for Utah in +116 win outright.

If you are using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take…

If you do, you’ll be in the minority of bettors, most of whom expect the Cougars to close the tight end against the Utes, according to the latest consensus spread projections for the game.

BYU receives 72 percent bets on winning the game by at least a field goal and covering the spread to remain undefeated and in sole possession of first place in the Big 12 standings.

Another 28 percent betting draft Utah will either hand BYU its first loss with a tough loss or keep the margin below a field goal if it loses.

BYU comes in on average over the weekend. another 13.7 points than their opponents when calculating all points and winning margins this season.

Utah leads by the slimmest of margins, on average. 0.1 point better against rivals in 2024.

These averages have changed little over the past three games as the Cougars have played 12.7 points better what the opponents and Utes were 5.7 points worse during this time.

Utah has done well at home this season. 2.7 points worse than opponents, while BYU averages 10.5 points better than competitors when playing away in 2024.

BYU and Utah match up well when it comes to points per game: Cougars average on offense 0.531 points per gameranking 15th in the FBS while the Utes allow 0.293 points per gamewhich ranks 19th nationally.

But the Utes are only 120th in the country with 0.270 points per game on offense, while the Cougars rank 16th in the FBS in passing. 0.287 points per game this year.

Most other analytics models also compare the Cougars to the Utahes in this rivalry game.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer forecasting model that uses data from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

BYU took the lead on the power play. 59.3 percent from the latest computer simulations of a match based on net win-loss.

That makes Utah a real threat to pull off the upset and win their remaining games. 40.7 percent Sims.

How does this affect the expected margin of victory in the game?

BYU is projected to be 3.5 points better than Utah on the same field with both teams’ current lineups, according to the latest model projection.

BYU ranks first among Big 12 teams with Probability 49.7 percent to make the College Football Playoff, according to FPI metrics.

This model gives the Cougars an overall win projection of 10.9 games this season.

Nationally, BYU ranks 12th among 134 FBS teams in terms of likelihood of making the playoffs, and the Cougars did find themselves in fourth place in the first CFP bracket this week.

Once in preseason speculation, the Utes had a clear shot at returning to the playoffs and are now struggling to make it to a bowl game.

FPI Utah Projects to Win 5.4 games at the age of 24, from Probability 41.9 percent to qualify for the cup.

When: Saturday, November 9.
Time: 20:15 Mountain
TV: ESPN network

–

Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

–

More college football from SI: Top 25 ratings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football Headquarters: Bookmark | Ratings | Choice