AP Solution Notes: What to Expect in Pennsylvania on Election Day

WASHINGTON — Pennsylvania voters are almost certain to play a key role in the Nov. 5 general election, with control of the White House, both houses of Congress and the state Legislature in the balance.

With 19 electoral votes, the Commonwealth is the biggest prize among the battleground states and an important part of both campaigns’ path to victory. Both Democratic Vice Presidents Kamala Harrisformer Republican President Donald Trump and their partners did frequent visits to the state since becoming candidates for their parties, including events in Allentown, Scranton, State College, Harrisburg and other places in the last week of October. Harris and Trump met for the first time in Philadelphia for their only debate in September.

Pennsylvania was one of three “blue wall” swing states that narrowly voted for Trump in 2016 after nearly 30 years of voting for Democratic presidential candidates; the others were Michigan and Wisconsin. Four years later Democrat Joe Biden returned all three states to Democrats with a margin of about 80,000 votes in Pennsylvania out of more than 6.9 million votes cast. States remain key electoral prizes this year.

IN US Senate racecurrent president of the Democratic Party Bob Casey looking for fourth term against Republicans Dave McCormick. Casey, the son and namesake of the former two-term governor, has one of the most recognizable names in state politics, but this year he faces the toughest race of his Senate career. The seat is critical to Democrats’ hopes of maintaining control of the narrowly divided chamber. McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO and military veteran, was running for another U.S. Senate seat from Pennsylvania in 2022, but lost the GOP nomination Mehmet Oz, who kept losing Democrat John Fetterman.

Going forward, several competitive races could play a role in determining control of the U.S. House of Representatives. In the 7th Congressional District, Democratic Congresswoman Susan Wild is running for a fourth full term against Republican Ryan McKenzie. In the neighboring 8th Congressional District, Democratic U.S. Rep. Matt Cartwright running for seventh term against Republican Robert Bresnahan. In 2020, the 7th District in eastern Pennsylvania narrowly supported Biden, while voters in the 8th District, which includes Biden’s hometown of Scranton, favored Trump.

IN race for control of the State LegislatureDemocrats defend themselves razor-thin majority in the state House of Representatives they won in 2022 for the first time in 12 years and have successfully defended their position in several special elections since then. All 203 state House seats and half of the 50 state Senate seats are up for election this year. Republicans have a majority in the state Senate.

Here’s a look at what to expect in the 2024 elections in Pennsylvania:

November 5th.

8:00 pm ET.

19 awarded to state winner.

President: Harris (Democrat) vs. Trump (Right) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Jill Stein (Green).

US Senate: Casey (D) vs. McCormick (R) and three others.

7th Congressional District: Wild (D) v. McKenzie (D).

8th Congressional District: Cartwright (D) v. Bresnahan (R).

U.S. House of Representatives, Attorney General, Auditor General, Treasurer, State Senate, and State House of Representatives.

Several factors contribute to Pennsylvania’s relatively slow vote-counting process. Pennsylvania law requires election officials wait until 7am ET on Election Day before they can begin processing mail-in ballots and preparing them for counting. announcement of postal voting results cannot begin until the polls close. Due to the overall volume of mail ballots (they made up nearly a quarter of the total vote in the 2022 midterm elections) and the varying amount of time it takes the state’s 67 counties to count those votes, determining a winner in a highly competitive race could take several days, as it did in the 2020 presidential election.

The first voting results released after the polls close are expected to be received by mail. Results later in the evening are expected to be a mix of mail-in votes and votes cast in person on Election Day. Once vote counting continues into the day after Election Day and beyond, voting results are again expected to come primarily from mail-in ballots.

Overall, votes cast by mail have tended to favor Democrats since the issue of early voting and mail-in voting emerged. became highly politicized during the 2020 elections. That means a Democratic candidate in a competitive race could quickly take a lead in the initial vote tallies after polls close, even though the race could tighten significantly as more votes are counted.

In 2020, Biden took an early and temporary lead after mail-in voting results began being released shortly after polls closed at 8 p.m. ET. By approximately 10:00 pm ET, Trump took the lead as new Election Day voting results were released. Trump led Biden by nearly 700,000 votes by early Wednesday morning, but that lead has been gradually shrinking as more mail ballots are counted. By Friday morning, Biden had eventually regained the lead.