Bumper harvest possible in Kharif due to heavy monsoon | Latest Indian News

India is likely to reap bumper harvests of kharif, or summer rice, corn and sugarcane, thanks in large part to a bumper monsoon, the government’s latest estimates based on planted area, its own data and feedback from private analysts showed on Sunday.

The country is also likely to harvest larger crops of some oilseeds such as soybeans, which, together with robust grain production, could help end a stubborn period of high food inflation.

Collection of huge amounts of agricultural produce, which accounts for nearly half of the country’s annual food supply, has increased despite a late start to harvest in some states due to heavy rains in September and early October.

Total rice production in summer 2024, despite concerns about some yield declines due to heavy rains, is likely to be around 14.5 million tonnes, higher than the previous year’s 14.2 million tonnes, the official said. Farmers planted rice on about 41 million hectares, up 4.1% from last year.

“Overall, the monsoon has been good and food grains are expected to be in surplus, while some pulses and oilseeds will be higher (than last year),” said the official, who did not wish to be identified.

The government has not yet released estimates because it is collating data from various sources, including satellites, a process known as triangulation. In September, the Ministry of Agriculture held several rounds of assessing likely production with private producers, forecasters and agricultural industry associations.

The June-September monsoon, vital to Asia’s third-largest economy, was 8% above normal. It irrigates almost half of the country’s net crop area. Good rainfall boosts agricultural production and consumer demand, helping to stimulate the economy.

The country is also on track to increase soybean production, critical to meeting vegetable oil demand, at 13.3 million tonnes under favorable weather conditions and a slightly larger area. According to official data, the country produced about 13 million tons in 2023-2024. Soybeans are used to make a variety of products, from soy sauce to refined oil. It is a staple crop in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan. India imports up to 60% of its edible oil demand.

Corn production is estimated to be slightly higher than last year’s 37 million tons.

The economy remains under pressure from high food inflation and volatile prices caused by extreme weather conditions and, to a large extent, global prices. In a sign that food grain production is expected to be plentiful, India is gradually lifting a series of restrictions on agricultural exports imposed to control high food inflation.

“How food inflation behaves in the future still depends on factors such as geopolitical developments, final production and data accuracy, and trade policy,” said Abhishek Agrawal, an analyst at Comtrade.

India is the world’s largest rice exporter, accounting for more than 40% of the world’s rice supply. The country exported nearly 22 million tonnes of grain in 2021-22, about a sixth of total domestic production.

The Union government on September 28 lifted a ban on the export of non-basmati white rice, reversing a trade policy that had restricted supplies of agricultural staples to curb a surge in local prices.

The Center allowed the supply of all varieties of white rice, banned in July 2023, but imposed a minimum export price of $490 per tonne with immediate effect to discourage extremely cheap sales abroad.

The country is also expected to increase sugarcane production to more than 470 million tons, which will likely make more cane available for both sweetener and ethanol used to blend with gasoline.

The Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Association has called for permission to export 2 million tonnes of sugar as the item’s opening balance is estimated at 8.8 million tonnes.