More than 3 in 4 Duke community members plan to vote for Kamala Harris, according to a poll by The Chronicle.

Editor’s note: This story is part of a series based on a survey of Duke community members conducted by The Chronicle Oct. 16-18. You can read more about our methodology and limitations. Hereor read our entire survey Here.

The Chronicle surveyed Duke students, faculty and staff about their voting plans ahead of the 2024 general election.

We found that more than 80% of respondents plan to vote this election cycle, and more than 75% intend to vote for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in the presidential election. Most respondents described themselves as liberal, a trend that was consistent across all demographic groups.

Registration status

More than 4 in 5 Duke community members plan to vote in the U.S. presidential election, and nearly all were already registered at the time of the survey.

Some 88.74% of respondents said they planned to vote in the 2024 presidential election, compared to just 2.94% who said they did not plan to vote. Another 8.33% responded that they do not plan to vote because of their citizenship status.

Respondents were asked what their current voter registration status is for the 2024 general election. About 87.37% of respondents stated that they were already registered, while 2.45% of respondents were eligible to register but had not yet done so at the time of the survey. About 8.92% of respondents were not eligible to vote due to citizenship or age. Approximately 1.27% of respondents were unsure of their registration status.

Of respondents registered to vote in North Carolina, 42.9% were from the Tar Heel State. Californians made up the next largest cohort of registered North Carolina residents with 6.09%, followed by New York with 5.17% and Texas with 4.77%.

Across all racial groups, large majorities of respondents were registered to vote. Notably, 17.54% of Asian respondents were not eligible to vote due to their citizenship. According to Duke Facts Dashboard As of fall 2023, the top three countries in which students live were China, India and South Korea, according to the university.

90.89% of female respondents registered to vote, compared to 83.74% of males. A higher percentage of male respondents did not have the right to vote: 11.57%. Approximately 3.69% of male respondents reported being eligible to vote but were not registered at the time of the survey, compared to 1.55% of females.

You can view a disaggregation of registration status by political identity on the website Table.

Political affiliation

Respondents were asked to indicate their political affiliation on a scale from “very liberal” to “very conservative.” Approximately 30.56% of respondents called themselves “very liberal”, 41.53% called themselves “fairly liberal”, 18.41% called themselves moderate or centrist, 7.44% called themselves “fairly conservative”, and 2.06% called themselves “very conservative.”

Most respondents identify themselves as liberals; More female respondents identify as liberals than males.

When grouped by gender, 83.33% of female respondents identified themselves as “somewhat liberal” or “very liberal,” compared to 55.91% of males who identified themselves as “somewhat liberal” or “very liberal.” Approximately 13.4% of female respondents identified as moderate/centrist, compared to 25.12% of males. Only 3.26% of female respondents described themselves as “somewhat conservative” or “very conservative,” compared to 18.97% of males.

Similar breakdowns in political identification were observed across all groups at Duke—undergraduate and graduate students, faculty, staff, and others—with a slightly larger share of faculty identifying as moderate/centrist and a slightly smaller share identifying as “somewhat liberal” or “very liberal.” Most respondents across all Duke groups described themselves as either “somewhat liberal” or “very liberal.”

Among racial groups with at least 15 respondents, the breakdown of political identification was generally similar, with most identifying as either “somewhat liberal” or “very liberal.” Black or African American respondents had the largest proportion of respondents identifying as liberal at 81.02%, while respondents from the Middle East and North Africa had the smallest proportion of respondents identifying as liberal at 66.66%.

You can view a disaggregation of political identity by party affiliation at Table.

Presidential elections

More than 3 in 4 Duke community members plan to vote for Kamala Harris.

The majority of respondents – 78.06% – intend to vote for Democratic presidential and vice presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. Approximately 7.64% of respondents intend to vote for the candidacy of Republicans Donald Trump and J.D. Vance. About 11.26% of respondents are not voting in the presidential race, and 3.04% intend to vote for third-party candidates.

Undergraduate and graduate students expressed very similar opinions about their votes for the president. Approximately 76.92% of alumni respondents intend to vote for Harris, while 7.69% intend to vote for Trump; while 75.69% of student respondents intend to vote for Harris and 7.85% intend to vote for Trump.

Faculty and staff were even more likely to vote for the Democratic presidential ticket, with 89.66% of faculty reporting their intention to vote for Harris and 88.89% of staff doing the same. Although full-time respondents were significantly less likely to be unregistered, they were also less likely to miss the election because none indicated they would not vote despite being eligible to vote.

The preferences of presidential candidates largely coincide with political identity.

When grouped by political affiliation, none of the respondents who described themselves as “very conservative” indicated they intended to vote for Harris, while none of those who described themselves as “very liberal” indicated they intended to vote for Trump . Meanwhile, 14.86% of respondents who described themselves as “somewhat conservative” intend to vote for Harris, while only 0.24% of respondents who described themselves as “somewhat liberal” intend to vote for Trump.

Respondents who identified as moderate/centrist were the most likely to not vote despite being eligible to vote (7.53%), followed by respondents who described themselves as “somewhat conservative” and “very conservative” ( 5.41% and 4.55% respectively).

Preferred presidential candidates

Most liberal respondents prefer Harris, while conservative respondents are more divided.

Respondents were asked to indicate their preferred presidential candidate—“even if he is not on the ballot”—from a list of nine options, with the 10th option being “other.” The nine options offered included Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, Chase Oliver and Cornel West.

Respondents who described themselves as “very liberal” or “fairly liberal” largely preferred Harris as their presidential candidate, 81.15% and 84.05%, respectively. Harris was also the preferred candidate for most moderate/centrist respondents with 44.62%, followed by Haley with 18.28%.

Conservative respondents were more divided. Trump received the support of a majority of “very conservative” respondents – 54.55%. He is followed by Haley with 22.73% and DeSantis with 18.18%. A majority of “somewhat conservative” respondents preferred Haley—32.43%—compared to 28.38% who preferred Trump and 10.81% who preferred DeSantis.

More Harris voters are satisfied with their choice than Trump voters.

Harris was the preferred presidential candidate for 80.78% of respondents who voted for her, while Trump was the preferred presidential candidate for 42.31% of respondents who voted for him.

The top three candidates (besides Harris) for Harris voters were Haley (4.27%), Stein (3.14%) and Biden (2.14%). The top three candidates (other than Trump) for Trump voters were Haley (24.36%), DeSantis (14.1%) and Kennedy (7.69%).

Respondents who answered “other” were given the opportunity to name an alternative candidate of their choice.

The majority of respondents (11 people) who selected the “other” option reported that they did not have a preferred alternative candidate. Ten respondents named Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, eight named Rep. Bernie Sanders, six were unsure what their preferred alternative candidate would be, six named Republican nominee Vivek Ramaswamy, three named Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and two named former First Lady Michelle Obama.

Gubernatorial elections

More than 9 in 10 members of the Duke community plan to vote for Stein for governor of North Carolina.

An overwhelming 91.14% of respondents plan to vote for the Democratic nominee for North Carolina governor, Attorney General Josh Stein. Approximately 5.23% of respondents plan to vote for the Republican candidate, Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, while 3.62% plan to vote for a third-party candidate.

None of the respondents who described themselves as “very” or “somewhat” liberal expressed intentions to vote for Robinson. While a majority of “somewhat conservative” respondents supported Trump, they were split on the gubernatorial race, with 44.68% supporting Robinson and 34.04% supporting Stein. A majority of “very conservative” respondents – 64.71% – said they intended to vote for Robinson, compared with 5.88% who intended to vote for Stein and 29.41% who intended to vote for another candidate.

You can view additional detail on governor preferences by clicking race and gender, race and political affiliation, Duke affiliation, political affiliation And religion on the Table.

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