Final polls show Trump faces huge gender gap as women flock to Harris

At the final stage of the elections, analysis Newsweek indicates a significant gender gap, with female voters showing a clear preference for Kamala Harris over Kamala Harris. Donald Trumpwhile men show a clear preference for Trump.

Newsweek Analyzing national polls since October 28 that provide a breakdown of voting intentions by gender, we found that on average, women trail Harris by 8 points, while men trail Trump by 10 points. This amounts to an average gender gap of 9 points.

According to Newsweek’s According to the analysis, polls show that on average Harris has the support of 52 percent of female voters and 43 percent of male voters. Meanwhile, Trump is supported by 53 percent of male voters, compared to 44 percent of female voters.

The gender gap is not a new phenomenon. Women were more likely to support Democrats and men were more likely to support republicans since the 1980s, and this political divide has only widened over time. But this year, that gap could have serious implications for the election results because of how close the current race is.

With the election just days away, the polls are closer than ever, according to tracker FiveThirtyEight. Kamala Harris is ahead by 1 point, while each swing state is within 2 points. Meanwhile, the Cook Political Report released its final projections Friday that showed the election too close to call.

Carrie Baker, a professor of women, gender and sexuality at Smith College in Massachusetts, said: Newsweek: “Whichever way this election goes, gender will be a critical factor in determining the outcome.”

Newsweek The Harris and Trump campaigns have been contacted by email for comment.

A recent JL Partners poll conducted Oct. 26-29 found that male voters are 22 points more likely than women to support the former president. Meanwhile, the women held a 14-point lead over Harris. This amounts to an average gender gap of 18 points.

Other polls also showed Trump leading Harris among men by a wide margin. For example, a poll conducted by Quantus Insights between October 27 and October 30 found Trump ahead of Harris by 13 points among men and Harris ahead of him by 11 points among women. This amounts to an average gender gap of 12 points.

However, some surveys have shown a much smaller gender gap. The AtlasIntel poll, conducted between Oct. 25 and Oct. 29, found men trailing Trump by just 4 points, while he and Harris tied among women at 49 percent each. Meanwhile, a SoCal Strategies poll conducted between October 30 and 31 found men trailing Trump by just 5 points and women trailing Harris by just 3 points.

But while the true nature of the gender gap is not clear from polling, surveys conducted since this year’s election have suggested that the gender gap may be especially wide among younger voters.

On average the last three New York Times/Siena College polls conducted from September to October show Trump leading Harris among young men by 21 points (58 percent to 37 percent), while Harris has a 39-point lead among young women (67 percent to 28 percent). ). A Harvard Kennedy School poll of 18- to 29-year-olds in September also found a 10-point gender gap: Trump received 38 percent support from young men compared with 28 percent from young women, while support Harris was 49 percent. percent among men and 59 percent among women.

Additionally, a poll by the Alliance for Black Equality, conducted Oct. 15-19, found that 35 percent of Black Gen Z men support Trump, the highest among Black voters surveyed. About 1,500 respondents took part in the survey, which has a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent.

“The gender voting gap, which began in 1980 and has widened steadily over the years, is likely to be wider than ever this year, especially among young people. MAGA Republicans target young men by tailoring their messages to hypermasculinity and disaffection.” Baker told Newsweek.

Elizabeth Clemens, a sociology professor at the University of Chicago, explained that the right’s use of populist rhetoric is critical to understanding what is driving the gender gap.

“From Hannah Arendt to Arlie Hochschild, scholars have recognized that populism speaks to those who experience or anticipate a loss of status, whether in the form of erosion of racial or gender privilege or loss of employment or social standing. Trump’s campaign promises a restoration of male privilege and traditional family roles; Democrats are focused on creating good-paying manufacturing and homeownership jobs,” she said. Newsweek.

A 2020 Pew Research Center poll found that 23 percent of men—and 33 percent of men who supported Trump—believe that women’s advancement comes at their expense.

Financially, young women are gaining independence at a faster rate than in the 1980s, with many young men earning more than young men and living independently. The Pew study also shows that 39 percent of men agree that men today struggle more than women to get well-paying jobs—a view that is especially common among young people. republican men.

And according to Blueprint, these people often feel pessimism and disillusionment with America and its political system—something Trump has capitalized on, positioning himself as an anti-establishment figure victimized by Washington’s political elite.

Nowhere has that been more evident in this election than in Trump’s use of podcasts—a nontraditional form of media—to appeal to young voters, especially men. The former president appeared on Joe Rogan Experience, Shawn Ryan Shawas well as Theo Von’s podcast and The Lex Friedman show. All four podcasts attract a largely young male audience and millions of viewers. Harris, meanwhile, declined to participate in The Joe Rogan Experience.

For Jackson Katz, co-founder of the Young Men’s Research Initiative, it was a disappointing move in her campaign.

“I was hoping she would continue The Joe Rogan Experiencebecause I think it would be a very powerful statement for young people,” he said. Newsweek.

But there is still hope for Harris’ campaign. Early voting data shows Democrats leading by 2 points. It is unclear what this means for elections, however, since the data only shows whether voters are registered with the party, not who they vote for. However, the data shows that the Democratic lead is a party driven by women who actively voted for Harris: 54 percent of all early voters identify as women and 43 percent identify as men. If this trend continues, Katz said Harris could win.

“I think part of the challenge in the Trump campaign was to try to motivate more young men to come forward than usual because they know they’re going to lose so badly among women,” he said.

He added that young people could even swing the election toward Harris if they “see” Trump.

“If enough young people can see the Trump campaign’s efforts to exploit their vulnerability to caricatured appeals to masculinity, it could make a difference,” he said.