Vulnerable Democrats toppled as NH Republicans retain control of House of Representatives

Ethan DeWitt
| New Hampshire Bulletin

In the most evenly divided New Hampshire House district in the state, Rochester House District 4 had every ballot counted on Tuesday. But the two voters almost sealed the deal.

A couple, an older woman who votes Democratic and a young man who votes Republican, met in line and realized that their votes canceled each other out. “We almost just said, ‘No!’ and went for a beer,” said a woman who gave her name as Lucy.

In the end, both voted. And voters in a county tied in 2022 decided to send Republican nominee Sam Farrington to the state House, easily ousting Democratic incumbent Chuck Grassi.

That pattern played out again and again Tuesday, as a number of vulnerable state House Democrats lost their seats to Republican challengers. And now New Hampshire Republicans appear to have thwarted Democrats’ attempts to retake control of the House and widened their slim House lead.

The party is expected to win 222 of the 400 seats in the House of Representatives, according to a social media post by the New Hampshire House Clerk on Wednesday.

These figures could not be immediately confirmed; The Associated Press listed just over 100 legislative seats as of early Wednesday afternoon.

But if true, the final numbers would significantly strengthen Republicans’ control and put them in a better position to pass major legislation next year. Republicans began the final two-year term with the smallest majority in modern New Hampshire history—201 Republican seats to 199 Democratic seats—and have barely held on to that lead amid a series of resignations and special elections this session.

Ahead of Tuesday’s elections, Democrats were defending 18 seats that were won in 2022 by less than 2 percent of the vote; Republicans defended 19. This created the possibility for either party to succeed and left control of the House of Representatives at the whim of minor changes in the direction of the presidential election.

But early results show Republicans were more successful in flipping those districts.

The Associated Press has confirmed that Matt Coker won re-election to his seat in Meredith, automatically giving Republicans an additional seat after Coker left the Democratic Party to become a Republican in the last session.

And while the AP had not made calls as of Wednesday afternoon, polling results showed Republicans flipping Democratic seats in Allenstown, Berlin, Boscawen, Brooklyn, Goffstown, Hollis, Laconia, Littleton and Pembroke, with more potential wins pending further results. .

In Laconia, Democrat Charlie St. Clair, a well-known figure who helps organize Laconia Bike Week, appeared to be holding on to his seat. But Republicans claimed victory over another seat in the district previously held by Democrat David Huot.

In Goffstown, voters turned a district that was represented by three Republicans and one Democrat into an all-Republican district.

They did the same in Littleton, voting for Republicans to take all three seats rather than just two.

As a result, the New Hampshire House of Representatives began to take a more traditional form, in which one party has decisive control of the chamber. It’s a contrast after two years of unusually low margins that have forced some compromises and left every Republican bill uncertain.

Both candidates for Rochester Ward 4 stood outside McClelland Elementary School; Grassi, 72, founder of the Rochester Child Care Center, and his Republican opponent Farrington, a student and farmer at the University of New Hampshire. Both candidates defined the central issue of the race differently.

“Education,” Grassi said in an interview. “The education system in Rochester is struggling. When I talk to voters, I say, you know there are two places you can get your money: one is from the state and the other is from local taxpayers. And I’m not here to extract more money from local taxpayers. I’m here to try to get more money from the government.”

Farrington identified broader economic problems. “Families are being burned out by high housing costs, healthcare costs, the list goes on.”

He told the state House of Representatives that he would seek to reduce the size of New Hampshire’s government and reduce the tax burden. “The government, like families, needs to tighten its belt,” he said.

But even in closely divided Rochester District 4, many voters Tuesday said they weren’t paying much attention to the House race. Some said they didn’t know about the rare election draw in 2022 and early elections repeat the attempt, which allowed Grassi to take control of the situation.

Instead, voters said their choices for the state Legislature largely reflected their most popular presidential and gubernatorial races.

Luce, who declined to give her last name, said she was pressured to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris for president because of concerns about health care and continued Medicaid funding to help her disabled son. She felt Donald Trump’s presidency raised the risk of program cuts. Her choice of Harris reflected on Joyce Craig and dropped her down the Democratic ballot.

“I’ve seen it fluctuate,” she said of Medicaid funding. “…And when the administration changes, I start to see things change.”

Doug Nadeau, a Trump voter Lucy befriended, was motivated—like many Republican voters—by concerns about the economy and personal finances. Nadeau, who works at the Portsmouth Navy Yard, has seen his salary increase over the years. But he said the cost of food and goods has risen along with it, reducing his increased benefits.

“Money was a big deal back when Trump was in office,” he said. He added that he wasn’t paying close attention to the governor’s race or legislative votes, but voted Republican on the ballot to balance his choice with his economic concerns.

Low awareness of state House and Senate races is well known among New Hampshire politicians; Data shows some voters are leaving bottom races blank on their ballots after voting for president and governor.

Standing amid a forest of signs outside McClelland Elementary School’s polling place, Rochester state Sen. James Gray said he and other lawmakers have instructions they give to voters so they don’t miss a race: “Flip your ballot over, start at the bottom and vote up.” “

One voter, Donald Smith, was a rare exception. Smith, an independent, voted for Trump and largely stuck with Republicans on the ballot, including Kelly Ayotte, the Republican who won the race for governor on Tuesday. But when it came to choosing state House representatives, Smith hesitated.

He voted for Farrington against Grassi. But he also voted to send some Democrats, such as John Larochelle, to the State House in the city’s flotation district.

According to him, Smith does not take the interests of the party into account when making decisions; he counts people.

“It’s time for new blood,” he said. “… We need to make some changes. And you can’t make those changes if you vote for the same people and the same policies and plans over and over again.”

This story was originally published New Hampshire Bulletin.